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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (4335)	1/28/1999 1:55:00 PM
From: Lutz Moeller	Respond to of 4509

Michelle, we watched the same market. You describe the typical behaviour for the spring correction, after the january effect. The autumn crashes of '97 and '98 were of different nature, I like to say, as the '97 pull down was the asian default and the 98 crash the russian default. Wonder why everyone is content with the brazilian real devaluation (I think the float was years overdue). I just wanted to hear whether you had any specific insight, I didn't. I sold most of my shares 1. dec 1998 and feel pretty sorry now, beeing some 45% in cash. Maybe the next correction makes me feel better. At last I can wait and am greedy enough to load up, when times are bad and people again speak of "tech dreck". Sincerely Lutz

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (4335)	1/28/1999 4:40:00 PM
From: Will Hou	Respond to of 4509

Michelle etc, I agree totally with your "prediction" re market pullback (how's that compared to CORRECTION?! LOL). Actually, I think it might come sooner than later. Big techs like CSCO INTC AOL are moving up too fast and approaching their higher end of PE ranges. For that reason alone, they'll fall back. It seems to me that lots people tend to look at things one eye at a time. When things are good, everything looks beautiful, colorful, vivid, sexy, .. you name it. When market makes a turn, all of sudden those bad news all surface at the same time along with all bad possibilities, even though they do co-exist at every moment of every day, good day or bad day. I guess it's all about confidence, know who you are, where you are. That said, I think PSFT has limited downside risk compared to upside potential. Short term it could go to 20, if that won't hold, probably 17 area. But if things look good, it'll go up faster to 30 then hit high about 50 sometime this year. For that reason, I got some ZQWAE (01 LEAP calls) and looking to get more, but most likely not till March/April since I believe it'll be higher then. Another interesting stock is CPWR. I am watching it very closely. No positions yet. I believe its high/low will probably be 100/60 this year. Just my 2c. W. P.S. Some say the reason behind March/April pullback, is related to the money flow after Jan effect/window-dressing, so relatively less money into market.. plus profit-taking, earning warnings, El Nino.. blah blah blah :)