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To: Mike from La. who wrote (36113)	1/28/1999 5:34:00 PM
From: Platter	Respond to of 95453

Mike good point, I agree , new leadership in Venezuela will bring some drastic changes to the way OPEC controls the market..The public squabbling will cease and unified statements will emerge on oil cuts.

To: Mike from La. who wrote (36113)	1/28/1999 5:41:00 PM
From: Platter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Oil bid higher in after hours trading (12.53) CL'H - Transaction 5:36:38 A 12.53 5:36:38 B 12.50 5:36:38 L 12.44 5:36:38 H 12.53 5:36:38 T 12.53 5:36:38 12.53 5:36:30 A 12.53 5:36:30 B 12.50 5:35:01 A 12.53 5:35:01 B 12.46 5:33:36 A 12.53 5:33:36 B 12.45 5:33:13 A 12.53 5:33:13 B 12.46 5:33:13 12.50 5:33:13 12.50 5:33:13 12.50 5:33:13 12.50 5:33:13 12.50 5:33:11 L 12.44 5:33:11 H 12.50 5:33:11 T 12.50 5:33:11 12.50 5:32:57 A 12.50 5:32:57 B 12.46 5:32:57 12.49 5:30:59 A 12.49 5:30:59 B 12.46 5:30:19 A 12.49 5:30:19 B 12.46 5:30:11 A 12.49 5:30:11 B 12.45 5:28:43 A 12.50 5:28:43 B 12.45 5:28:43 L 12.44 5:28:43 H 12.49 5:28:43 T 12.49 5:28:43 12.49 5:25:57 A 12.49 5:25:57 B 12.45 5:25:57 L 12.44 5:25:57 H 12.48 5:25:57 T 12.48 5:25:57 12.48 5:17:37 L 12.44 5:17:37 H 12.47 5:17:37 T 12.47 5:17:37 12.47 5:11:39 A 12.47 5:11:39 B 12.44 4:58:24 E 1748 4:58:24 L 12.21 4:58:24 H 12.47 4:58:24 S 12.45 4:54:27 12.44 4:52:01 12.46 4:52:01 12.46 4:47:41 L 12.44 4:47:41 H 12.46 4:47:41 T 12.46 4:47:41 12.46 4:41:29 A 12.46 4:41:29 B 12.42

To: Mike from La. who wrote (36113)	1/28/1999 6:36:00 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Mike from La., I might add to what you wrote that we are seeing demand for our end products, gasoline, lubes beginning to rise actually in a number of Asian countries but not yet Japan.... Sincerely, Doug F.

To: Mike from La. who wrote (36113)	1/28/1999 7:06:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 95453

Mike: I agree with you that things arer going to improve soon and this probably is the final shakeout. Still, a selling climax looks like a good bet within the next few days as a mood of capitulation sets in. This is specially likely if we get new lows on the OSX. Actually I would welcome such a climax as it almost certainly wwould be followed by a huge move up in very short order.

To: Mike from La. who wrote (36113)	1/28/1999 7:31:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

<<decreasing production, and increasing demand are going to intersect, >> Truer, more ''calming'' words could not have been spoken... good to read some rational thinking here ! <<The projected cuts in 1999 e&p budgets are huge, and will be felt more every week, as depleted wells' outputs are not replaced. Rough figures are that oil wells deplete at about a 30% rate, and gas at around 40. This depletion cannot be replaced without drilling, which is not happening. >> ...pure mathematics & common sense there. << we are looking at some big time reductions in production, which will not be reversed quickly, even if oil went straight up. Just can't go out and rehire laid off people, generate huge e&p budgets with low earnings etc.>> ...this is why the above average possibility exists for an upward ''spike'' in crude prices. If Japan & Asia surprise early and strong; we'll see a spike. The percentages of over/under supply that can trigger huge price swings is not well understood by most. <<Just need to hunker down, the emotional response to negative earnings reports will pass quickly, >> ...you got that right; remaining cool, calm and sticking to your guns into the face of exaggerated emotional reactions = profit. Once again; nothing fundamentally has changed either good, or bad to justify these swings; so trade on the irrationality. Take profits at the tops; and buy into the selloffs. When fundamentals (crude prices, API/IEA numbers, new OPEC cuts,earnings, rig utilization/dayrates) improve, then hold 'em; untill then - trade 'em ! Super post Mike; many, many valid points !

To: Mike from La. who wrote (36113)	1/28/1999 8:28:00 PM
From: dealmakr	Respond to of 95453

Mike, Good post and sound reasoning. Most of the corporate reports that I have read lately have stated the recent earnings woes due to low crude pricing. They have also stated increasing downward pressure on dayrates that will have negative impacts on margins and earnings in the near term future. As a trader, when I see size offered for sale on a consistant basis, I have a tendancy to step out of the way of the funds dumping. It doesn't mean that the bottom is in again or opinions of weakness in the sector are correct or incorrect, it means that the boyz are dumping stocks that they don't think will outperform the general market near term. Crude going up today with the sector going down to me looks like we are nearing some sort of capitulation low (hopefully). I do agree with the undervaluations of a lot of stocks in the sector and will be an investor as compared to a trader when the market tells me the time is right. Am trying to nibble on a WFT position now, also like MRL with FMR holding 10%, but will wait on a retest of 7 1/8. Plenty of bargins valuation wise, but I will trade until confirmed. Good Trading Dave