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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elmer who wrote (4393)	1/28/1999 8:46:00 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4509

Hmmm well I dont know how the mkt will react to this but I was thinking the street was looking for $Zero license growth in backoffice this year. Well, thats what I was looking for anyway, and psft hit the mark (sad but thats what my expection truly was). I dont think Oracle apps numbers will be that much better than this - except that they have the wild card I2 connection that is helping them a little. We'll have to see tomorrow if this was factored into the stock price or not. Heres an article on Sap someone gave me: "Analysts suspect growth of new licenses in the fourth quarter was flat. " Psft is actually mentioned as a recipient of the mkt changes that are hurting Sap - but before you get too excited, Baan is also mentioned and we know where they are. forbes.com I still say, for those that own this company you can make up the losses in the bandwidth sector pretty quickly if you wait until the spring correction and buy @Home or csco or one of the other comms.

To: Elmer who wrote (4393)	1/28/1999 8:52:00 PM
From: Melissa McAuliffe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4509

<<They turned it around in the next four quarters. Can PSFT do the same?>> ORCL's problems at that time were of an execution nature vs. problems hitting the entire sector. That's the difference here. I don't necessarily see this as something PSFT can turnaround since it's not an execution problem. I wish it were. This is a sector issue right now and has hit all the ERP players. SAP is in no better shape right now than PSFT regardless of what they may say. ORCL(apps, BAAN,JDEC,etc. all are in the same boat. So the real question you have to ask yourself is in what time frame MMTM's products will start being released to PSFT. Will these products help PSFT leapfrog the competition....how much revenue will they generate, in what timeframe. How much of the slowdown is due to Y2K vs.market saturation. How much can the middle market contribute while waiting for the new technologies/products to be released,etc,etc. I don't know the answers obviously but therein lies the key to knowing how long it will take. I agree w/Michelle about the athm's and aol's. Also, I still strongly believe that sebl is today where PSFT was four years ago from an investment perspective and has tremendous upside potential in the front office sector which is the only growing area in enterprise software today. SEBL just announced 89% growth for last year. Wait...I forgot scm and in that sector I still like ITWO.