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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (36151)	1/29/1999 8:34:00 AM
From: Tomas	Respond to of 95453

The fate of oil and gas prices - what the bears are missing! Upstream Jan. 29 upstream.tm Hard winter 'holds key to price revival' THE FATE of oil and gas prices is more dependent on temperature changes than on economic developments in Asia, the Middle East, Africa or Brazil, according to independent energy analyst Michael Smolinski. Weather patterns hold the key to commodity and energy-related stock prices, Smolinski told the Houston chapter of the US National Investor Relations Institute last week. He believes that 1999 will bring average prices of $19 for West Texas Intermediate crude oil and $2.70 for Henry Hub gas. Smolinski's argument could not be simpler. After two years of unseasonably warm El Nino-affected winters in the months when heating demand is greatest, "colder than normal temperatures for the past several weeks indicate to us that the warm El Nino pattern is over and that colder, more normal temperatures should be expected". He said in the US electricity generation the first week of January was the second-highest winter electric load ever. "If the second half of the winter is more normally cold, we expect large quantities of energy to be consumed and the inventory surpluses to be eliminated." Electricity generation trends figured importantly in Smolinski's argument. "Nuclear output has peaked and coal-fired plants are reaching maximum capacities," he said. At the same time, US energy demand was increasing due to a strong economy. US gas production, however, was estimated to be about 5% lower this year than last and he said that he did not expect imports to rise any faster than they did from 1987 to 1994. "We expect news of falling gas production to be one of the reasons given to explain higher than expected natural gas prices," he said. Smolinski said he believed the oil price bottomed out during early December's very mild temperatures. "Two years of declining oil prices is reducing supply by voluntary and involuntary production cuts and lower drilling levels," he said. "The bears are missing the fact that the US (oil) inventory has remained at the same level that it rose to last May when the first Opec production cuts began to be reflected in US data. "If February is normally cold, the inventory surplus could be a shortfall by March." Smolinski had words of encouragement for the drilling and oilfield service sector, where share prices have been hardest hit by the drop in energy prices. "The oil service stocks have moved with the price of natural gas," he said. "We believe the price of gas is beginning a multi-year rise from the early December low that will again make the drilling and oilfield service stocks top performers. "We predict that the direction of energy prices is now up from early December lows," he said. Michael Smolinski was a sell side energy investment analyst for 10 years with Tucker Anthony and First Albany Corporation's FAC Equities and an energy economist for DRI/McGraw Hill's Data Resources.

To: The Ox who wrote (36151)	1/29/1999 12:39:00 PM
From: A. Geiche	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

OT MH: dream on! Even in this brainwashed country, there was considerable outrage against that latest feat of the American and British governments. But even the governments of our former allies are no longer with us. It is because they reflect growing changes in social consciousness in their countries. You maybe were in other countries recently, and maybe you did not see the growing trends against our latest crimes. But you simply are unable to see such things. It is obvious that you are unable to comprehend the meaning and extend of those trends even being brought in touch with them. So it was even in very this country in 60-70s. I was not a part of the anti-war movement, but I did observe it. I observed how the anti-war people were beaten, arrested, tortured, killed and of course ridiculed. You bet they were possessed by strong attitudes. And the prevailing attitude to that war was that it was an outrageous crime just equal to the crimes of Nazis. That attitude grew throughout the world. In some countries (e.g. Sweden) members of their governments led endless anti-American demonstrations. But to the American fascists that was of course nothing. Right??