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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (3082)	1/29/1999 3:06:00 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

pay 40% tax to try to time a 20% pullback? is that how Buffett made his fortune? I'm still holding my 1996 AMAT shares bought at $12 and I have some LAM shares that saw $65 before they saw $8 3/8ths and I loaded up at $12 and $10 on either side. I feel good that Uncle Sam never got a penny from these! You must be using IRA money! I use my non deferred money so I only pay the 20% once....years later when I sell. Different styles I suppose. i like to integrate out the noise. regards Kirk

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (3082)	1/30/1999 7:13:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

MGJ and All: Did an AMAT study this morning of the 1996-1997 recovery and the current one. We can say that AMAT roughly bottomed at the same time in 1996 as it did in 1998. The confirmed turnaround point was the November conference call for AMAT. I took the closing price on the day after the November cc and ran it against the closing price at the end of January just for fun. Nov 18, 1996: $18.8125; January 29, 1997: $22.9375; Gain 21%. November 22, 1997: $36.9375; January 29, 1999: $63.1875; Gain 71%. Assuming both industry recoveries will be of the same magnitude, and this is debatable, there is a 50% disparity. Now this is not scientific as everyone here knows, but I cannot help but believe that a good chunk this 50% differential is market froth and panic buying. Remember, we are in a blast off market here with huge glue sniffing euphoria. This did not exist in 1996 - 1997 in this time frame. Went short AMAT and TER at the close on Friday for a trade in a play to take advantage of the upgrade game. She went from "buy" to "stong buy." What a joke. "Strong buy" was in October. We should be in "hold" or "sell" mode now. The best way to trade that upgrade nonsense is to buy in the morning, ride the upgrade, sell at the close and then go short and wait for the pullback next week. They love to round them to the daily highs at the close in the upgrade game. This analyst is humping TER big time. Round trip profits although nothing in life is guaranteed.