To: uu who wrote (14098 ) 1/30/1999 10:03:00 PM From: Rusty Johnson Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 64865
Sun: Poised to Join Tech Elite Upside Tech Markets February 01, 1999 by Aaron Goldbergupside.com To identify emerging leaders, analysts must look beyond an elite company's activities and try to detect major alterations in an industry's structure--change, after all, gives rise to opportunity. The last sea change in the tech industry was the move from big systems to PCs. Think about it: Did Intel matter before PCs drove the computing business? We're now at another such juncture: The movement from the PC economy to the Internet economy is happening in real time. We can expect new leaders to emerge from this major shift, and Sun is the No. 1 contender. To join the leaders, a company must meet twin imperatives: It must adapt to a major shift in business and own some key standard. Sun meets both requirements. While naysayers have expressed valid concerns about Sun's ability to generate short-term revenue and promote the key platforms Java and Jini, I believe the company is do- ing reasonably well on both counts. Java is achieving--at a minimum--cult popularity among developers. And Jini, a Java-based networking infrastructure, is conceptually way ahead of the alternatives. It's too early to say that Sun has "blown it" with either environment, as some pundits have suggested. The key to Java's long-term success is to get more programmers to use it, not to make money from it now. On that front, Java has come from nowhere to become a major development platform in a short time. ... It's not Java and Jini alone that make Sun a leader-to-be. Perception is key, too--and this is where I think Sun has done a great tactical job. The company has positioned its hardware products, especially the server line, as options that must be evaluated if an end-user company is doing "anything on the Web." In our database of more than 130,000 U.S. businesses, we frequently see Sun servers installed to run Web applications within companies where Sun has made no other sales. In the high-tech industry, the long-term rewards are significantly larger for market leaders than for companies that are merely executing the status quo. Entry into this elite group is difficult, and it requires a complete set of technologies and platforms, strategic commitment and a marketing and sales campaign--and, oh yeah, you have to be right about all three. That's why leadership is hard to achieve. It's also why I think Sun is about to join the leaders' club. Best of luck.