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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (4937)	1/29/1999 8:58:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 99985

Donald may I suggest to average also the SPX and NYSE. Haim

To: donald sew who wrote (4937)	1/30/1999 2:50:00 AM
From: Daniel Joo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Anyone else see the GDP numbers - 4th qtr GDP rose 5.6% despite problems in Asia, Latin America, and Russia. As a matter of fact, international trade had a negative growth impact on GDP of only 0.03%. Inflation is negligible and unemployment is at its lowest since 1969. Consumer and business confidence is rising. And with 2/3 of companies reporting quarterly earnings so far, they've beaten optimistic First Call estimates by 4.4%. Wages are rising and low interest rates are adding even more discretionary income in consumers' pockets. In addition, Asia is starting to turn around with South Korea close to paying off their IMF loans. All signs are bullish. IMO, at current valuations, money flow becomes more important. Last week, we saw an inflow of $6.1 billion into equity funds. Stock market appears to be impacted the following week. As we all know, the exchanges are just an auction house ruled by demand and supply. Supply is dwindling with the recent influx of mergers and acquisitions and demand is increasing - boomers are reaching the age where they are starting to invest more. Since they have done such a poor job of saving up to now, they are all chasing higher returns than what is currently offered with money markets, treasuries, bonds, etc. This trend will continue to 2005 - 2010.

To: donald sew who wrote (4937)	1/30/1999 3:43:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 99985

I am still rebuilding my chart database since replacing my charting software so I have been a bit behind lately. I finally got around to rebuilding my weekly charts and after glancing quickly through them in the wee hours of the night, my view on the market is changing and my outlook may be tieing my previous conflicts together. Many of the stocks that I was looking to short are not looking as over bought on the weekly charts as the daily charts showed. While they were still good shorts for the most part, they were not as guaranteed as I thought. I am now thinking we may be early on our original forecasted market drop as we were before in June last year. I need to study the charts heavier this weekend to get a perspective but I think that while caution is still advised, we could still have some more upside here and then a possible last gasp rally up to exhaustion that could signal the end and the time to go short. So many people are looking at a market drop soon that I am starting to lean towards a last ditch short squeeze to force them into submission before the real drop begins. I will be watching for sharp spike ups as shorts cover. Of course like I said, I need to study the charts heavier this weekend but this is my evolving WAG right now that would explain many of the conflicts I have been seeing lately. The trigger for the short squeeze might end up being the conclusion to the impeachment trial or something similar. I ran a zig zag indicator on the indexes and the rallies have been getting succeedingly shorter each time but the next one could still last into March. I still show a intersection of omportant trendlines converging next Wednesday however with CSCO reporting Tuesday, could it be an explosivew upmove to get through resistance and spark the next rally while everyone is getting short? As I said, I have not dug into the charts as much as I need to to change my mind completely, however if you look at the weekly charts and redraw your forks etc using them, Many of the stocks that were way over bought on the dailies suddenly have more upside room in the weeklies and many of my indicators are showing significant upside moves still possible. Will post again when I see more of these charts and cross check some more indicators. I am not saying it is safe to mortgage the house. I think we are still in a dangerous time period and margin should be eliminated and hedges used when possible but I am not seeing the red flashing lights yet. This drop may have been pushed back into March vs our original February prediction. A nice short squeeze would be an interesting climax to this last large rally. Of course if the market tanks Monday, I didn't write this. <g> Lee