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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas J Pittman who wrote (36289)	1/29/1999 10:41:00 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

U.S. Oil, Gas Rig Count at New Low HOUSTON (AP) -- The number of rigs actively exploring for oil and natural gas in the United States plummeted by 26 to an all-time low of 562 Friday. It's the second consecutive week for the energy industry yardstick to reach a record low. Until Houston-based Baker Hughes Inc. reported 588 working rigs last Friday, the company's lowest rig count was 596, reported June 12, 1992. Baker Hughes has kept track of the count since 1944. The tally peaked at 4,530 on Dec. 28, 1981, during the height of the oil boom. Tony McAloon, director of market research at Baker Hughes, said there probably are fewer rigs looking for oil and gas in the country now than at any time since the boomtown days of the early 1900s. Suffering Asian economies, heavy production by oil-laden countries and the record-warm conditions of 1998 all have worked to create a perceived glut that has depressed prices and, in turn, exploration activity. Of the rigs running nationwide this week, 119 were exploring for oil and 443 for gas. During the same week last year, 987 rigs were operating in the United States. Of the major oil- and gas-producing states, only Alaska and New Mexico added rigs, each increasing its totals by two. Louisiana lost seven rigs from a week ago, Texas lost five, Oklahoma lost four, Wyoming three and California one. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

To: Thomas J Pittman who wrote (36289)	1/29/1999 11:05:00 PM
From: A. Geiche	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

<<Picking the bottom is a fools game>> <<let the knife hit the floor>> Thomas, you are confused. That your "floor" is the "bottom".

To: Thomas J Pittman who wrote (36289)	1/29/1999 11:07:00 PM
From: thomas hayden	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

lowest rig count ever...to me that seems like blood is running in the streets. However, it may take several quarters for the low rig count to be reflected in OS companies earnings, and then we may see real red in stock prices. Although I've got to think that the few number of rigs exploring, which is probably being echoed around the world, will in a year or so have some affect on supply. Then again maybe the Saudi's will just crank up the faucet.

To: Thomas J Pittman who wrote (36289)	1/29/1999 11:13:00 PM
From: Mark Glembocki	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Thomas, Thomas You know you are going to get flammed for your comments no matter how true they might be! But are they true ??? Time will tell !!! I have been involved with this sector since its highs back in 11/97. I made a boat load of money and then proceeded to give it all back over the last 14 months... However earnings during that time were pretty much right in line or above. So I guess that's explained away by saying that the market is a forward thinking machine. So while the earnings were soaring the stocks were tanking... These things are in the toilet, look at FLC, ESV, GLM, RIG, RON, etc... look at any one of them,, an overweighted buy and hold investor was blown right out of the market over the last 14 months if they listened to the analysts.. Thomas there is plenty of fear and dispair...the only bullishness you see right now is either from new comers to the patch or long termers who unfortunately have felt the pain but are lucky enough to still be here to talk about it. The bottom might be in place or it might not but you can rest assured the members of this thread will be around to enjoy the fruits of their hard work. Thomas there is nobody and I mean nobody who can accurately time or explain this market, you make good points here but so does Slider and Platter and the rest of the team.... But it is virtually impossible to time it right. But there is only one guarantee that I can give you... Once this sector takes off, those who have been waiting for the absolute bottom will look like a deer in headlights... If you are scared of them now you sure will be scared 20 to 50% up from here. And that is were they will be well before the oil fundamentals turn around. Speaking of Semi's....can you explain the upgrade on LRCX today ? stock was 9 bucks six weeks ago,,,it is 38 bucks today up 6 after CSFB upgraded them to a buy..... oh yea...one more thing...they made .09 cents last year and LOST $2.16 this year. Please help me understand. It appears there is a lot of money looking for a home !!!! If and when oil hits 16 to 18 .......... It WILL find a home !!!! Mark

To: Thomas J Pittman who wrote (36289)	1/30/1999 12:17:00 PM
From: John Carpenter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Thomas, I agree 100%. Some on the thread have chastised me when I suggested that these stocks will likely lose one third to two thirds more of their value. Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it. I keep pointing to the 20yr charts of SLB and GLM. Oil-service and drilling stocks are still too high. Several companies will declare bankruptcy again during this downcycle. I think there's still a real possibility that we won't see a recovery until the year 2003.