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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (5034)	1/30/1999 5:06:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Haim: Well that seems a very astute observation. I have no idea as to how to create a chart of the SPX or OEX without the four stocks. However, it would be interesting to see the difference. Regards, LG

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (5034)	1/30/1999 7:36:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Haim and Larry, >>>>> , I was bouncing an idea around regarding the averages, mostly SPX and OEX who have AOL, MSFT, INTC CSCO in them <<<<<< It would be hard to calculate since I believe its based on market cap. The easiest way is to just compare 2 periods of time when they were at the same level in the index. Lets say we used the peak of last JULY when the spx was at 1200 and now. If the index is based on market cap, we first need to determine what percent those 4 stocks were of the index for 3 time periods: 1) Julys peak around 1200 3) a recent time the spx was around 1200(end NOV) 4) and now Then just take those percentages and and apply inversely to the appropiate stock levels. It wont be exact but should give a fairly accurate comparison. One could mathematically argue that we would need to also include the change in the price of the individual issues, but since it is already calculated into the market cap, I feel there is no need. Seeya

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (5034)	1/30/1999 8:14:00 PM
From: Bonnie Bear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Haim, all...over on MBurke's thread I posted the top 50 bloated pigs numbered according to market cap and grouped by sector. The top 50 have a market cap of 6.2T. There are four types of stocks...telecom-net-boxmakers; car-and-gasoline; drug-and-bathroom; and home-and-mortgage. Half of the stocks are telecom-net-box companies. When I went down to number 51-100 on the bloated big list, the market cap for those was 2.3 T..so nearly all the market cap is in the top 100 names for a total of 8.5 T -g-. In the 50-100 list, half of those were also telecom-net-boxmaker stocks. It looks like the whole bunch doubled in the last three months...so at a international index market cap level at went from about 6T to 8T or 33B dollars per day for the last sixty trading days. MSFT, INTC, CSCO and Dell at #1,3,4, 17 in market cap have the most effect at 1T market cap. AOL would have effected MDY but the index was changed when it was removed. At an index level, the nasdaq index was just reconstituted...good stocks were dumped and garbage stocks were added, you should look on the nas home page for this as it is quite interesting. -g- IMHO the big players are playing MDY now... here is the link nasdaq.com The problem with using an index for market direction analysis is that the composition of the indexes is constantly changing to window-dress them. They are glorified mutual funds with huge turnover.