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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TEMFASSBAL who wrote (5381)	1/30/1999 6:46:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

TEMFASSBAL; <<"This business is EXTREMELY unattractive to anyone else and, increasingly, to those already in it" - Z>> <<"I've said this a thousand times if I said it once..the barriers to entry in the suspension business is the single best reason to own this company.">> I think this is a valid observation in reference to HTCH. HTCH has a strong market barrier position and clearly has a lead in the independent supply of wireless suspensions, which we could argue are going to grow in use inevitably. I also agree with your point that the notion of Fujitsu becoming an independent supplier is flawed due to competitive supply issues. Actually I cannot think of a single disk drive maker who has made a success of an OEM components business. In my opinion IBM is doing poorly as a head supplier just like they have always done poorly each time they tried to enter that business. The question I still have and hope to resolve today is that of valuation. HTCH was not one of the recovery stocks I invested in, in spite of Z's good advice early enough. I think there are several of us here who did not heed his analysis. So now, faced with an extraordinary run up in the stock, is Z right again, and is HTCH trading at forward multiples that make it an attractive investment still? Yogi bought last week, while I was buying Seagate again and adding QNTM. I am still riding a substantial short position on WDC but should probably cover soon. The question now is whether it is time for another shuffle and should HTCH be a part of that. <<How'd that EBAY trade work out...or is it still working?>> Down 15 points (5.13%) Friday. (Awesome Z, simply awesome. I am pointing my prayer rug in your direction.) Best, Stitch

To: TEMFASSBAL who wrote (5381)	1/31/1999 1:05:00 PM
From: Z Analyzer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

<<I've said this a thousand times if I said it once..the barriers to entry in the suspension business is the single best reason to own this company. >> In addition to the economies of scale barrier you discussed, its not insignificant that you can't just mail order from Acme a kit full of "Suspension Manufacturing and Testing Eqipment" nor can you go to Kelly Sevices for suspension engineers, plant managers and even trained manufacturing employees. I'd like to hear of any more highly proprieatary computer hardware business nor one that's been dominated so long by one company. HTCH's problem has been inconsistant financial performance largely because they will go to any lengths to make sure the customers get the leading edge products. Fortunately, the are no foreseeable product transitions on the order of TSA. <<PS How'd that EBAY trade work out...or is it still working?>> I'm still short and about 12 points in the money which isn't much of a cushion for an internet stock. Still to early to say I've earned the coveted Zeinstein title but at least I'm not yet ZFool.