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To: Andrew who wrote (489)	1/31/1999 1:32:00 AM
From: kaz	Respond to of 611

"The probability for a third head (of an honest 3-sided coin) is still 1/3 even after a string of third heads." Absolutely correct. However, probability-wise, the third head can't come up forever. Since we can't know what the outcome of the next toss will be (sound familiar?), the smarter money would wait for a string and then start betting (the smart money wouldn't bet at all under such bad odds). Even so, the chances of winning over a long round of tosses is slim to none. You all know my point, the same is true of the market. The only help we have is: technical analysis (far from perfect), fundamental analysis (far from perfect), and our judgement (far from perfect, for most anyway). It is not my contention that markets are random (like a coin toss). There are observations one can make based on patterns. Those who consistently make more than they lose must be very good at identifying these patterns correctly, betting accordingly and exiting immediately if they are wrong. Regards, Paul Kaz