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To: donald sew who wrote (5090)	1/31/1999 12:16:00 PM
From: Daniel Joo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I hate to keep throwing FA in the midst of all the great TA that's being done on this thread. But I wanted to get some thoughts. I use TA as one of the tools when doing analysis and right now I'm getting mixed signals. If anyone subscribes to Business Week, turn to page 34 of the February 8, 1999 edition - "So Much For The Earnings Slump." They took a snapshot of 80 companies' earnings reports for this past quarter and divided the companies into the following sectors - Industrial, Services, Technology, Utilities & Telecom. They found that Net Earnings are up an average of 8% with Technology and Utilities & Telecom leading the way with 60% earnings growth each. Industrials declined 14% and services declined 11%. These numbers confirm what Abby Cohen has been saying all along that some industry sectors will see earnings growth of 50% or more while others are declining. The prblem right now is perception - the companies we are used to following are showing declining earnings. I follow her index forecasts because she breaks down each company on the S&P 500, projects earnings and calculates impact to the index - her predictions for 1999 - DJIA 9850 - S&P 500 1275. In addition, what is noted in the article is that both Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs have upped their 1999 earnings forecasts. Earnings show strong growth despite Japan' 3 year long recession - so much for the U.S. catching a cold when Japan catches the flu; despite Russia's economic demise; despite Latin America's troubles especially Brazil; despite SE Asia's economic woes. It looks like SE Asia is turning around, and if Japan can right the ship, if China comes on strong, and if Brazil gets under control, I think that our economy will only gain in strength. Now I know that we are looking at a shorter time frame and that's where TA comes in handy. Since the S&P 500 has already exceeded Abby's 1999 forecasts in the first month - although I don't know if she included AOL in her forecasts - I'm a little more nervous in the immediate future. I still think the downturn will come around mid to end of March and from what I'm seeing from some of your charts that you have so generously posted on this thread, some indicators seem to point that way.

To: donald sew who wrote (5090)	1/31/1999 1:18:00 PM
From: HiSpeed	Respond to of 99985

And people say this thread is bearish.....<vbg> Over on the PnF thread the feeling seems to be we are due for a correction - some very sharp PnFers I wouldn't bet against on that thread - as usual timing is key though. <OT> the plans for building nukes are not classified - anyone who wants to know how to build one can find the plans - the hard part is getting the nuclear materials. Typically only governments can do that - or a terrorist with a 1/4 billion in his bank account dealing with a cash strapped Ruskie state (no <g>)

To: donald sew who wrote (5090)	1/31/1999 2:32:00 PM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 99985

donald: From a YING/YANG perspective, there isnt really good or bad - just "IS". OK, that depends on the meaning of "IS"....<ggg> Regards, LG

To: donald sew who wrote (5090)	1/31/1999 11:34:00 PM
From: Cents	Respond to of 99985

DonaldOTNothing to be sorry about. Reading your post was as if I was seeing the last days of mankind flash before my eyes. Quite scary. I agree that times now are very different. I'm not much of a market timer, (yes I do believe that we need a market correction), but as for our world I'm thinking more that we are in need of a major "cleansing". This perspective allows me to keep my own life in balance and to value things that are very immaterial and precious which hasn't always been easy to do. It's especially hard when selfish actions and ignorant lifestyles have become the norm. One feels like one's missing out on all of the action and fun...sort of like how I feel about the market right now. Oh well...Enlightenment is good. Take care. Also I just want to say that I truly enjoy reading your posts and hope that you continue writing on whatever pops into your mind no matter what others may say. Regards, Cents

To: donald sew who wrote (5090)	2/1/1999 7:06:00 AM
From: Debra Orlow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Good morning Don Your post on your thoughts regarding society triggered a thought that I had been meaning to talk to you about in a previous post. I agree with you on the excesses of the current society, and a possible need for your rubber-band theory to also come into effect in how it all works out. The more that I talk to people that are involved in this country's infrastructure, the more that I think that this year 2000 thing might just be the thing that finally starts to pull that rubber band to the other side. Altho there are some industries that have known problems, and some of those will not be as bad as they are saying, there are some industries that have no clue as to what will happen. The telecom and utility sectors I believe will have serious problems. And guess what EVERY other industry relies on, EVERY DAY? Just a thought...... Debra

To: donald sew who wrote (5090)	2/1/1999 11:06:00 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Donald, OT just returned from 3 weeks in Thailand. You have no idea how timely your ying/yang theory is. The technology gap between the western world and the so called developing countries like Thailand is widening, resulting in larger rich/poor discrepancies. There weren't many happy faces in Thailand. When I posted that observation to my tour guide, he said if I think the Thais aren't happy, I should go across the border to Myanmar (Burma) and see some real long faces. Tourism is now dominated by Germans and Americans, with Japanese no where in sight. How long can our prosperity continue while many Thais are surviving on their minimum wage of less than $5 per day? I agree totally this ying yang is totally out of balance at this point. Just hope my karma is good enough that I don't get yinged when I should have been yanged. Ramsey