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Technology Stocks : Data Race (NASDAQ: RACE) NEWS! 2 voice/data/fax: ONE LINE! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BDR who wrote (30639)	2/1/1999 10:33:00 PM
From: Marshall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33268

Dale - I must have made a hundred posts about this in the past but it's pretty obvious that it's hard to go back in this thread to find anything. Let's see if I can condense some of the points so my fingers don't wear out. You're right - xDSL would be a secure connection but unfortunately the analysts have always predicted that it will be the year 2001 before we see a 10% availability and I have to agree. I once moved my prediction to 2002 but with the cable modems moving forward at a quicker pace than expected I think the RBOCs are stepping up their efforts. One problem is that "remote access" should be "remote access" in that it can be used anywhere regardless of where you are or where you live. Even as we get to the 10% point that won't guarantee you multiple-line functionality in your home, a motel room, in the airports or at the office you're conducting an audit in. The problems in implementing xDSL are many. First of all most of the copper pairs out there have an average of 23 splices between the CO and the termination point which can play havoc with the way it works. Second - the RBOCs have to make a large investment in their switching equipment to offer it as well as cleaning up their lines which would naturally involve a lot of labor. In many areas this can't even be done since there are load coils on the lines that aren't even on their maps. A few other things that interfere are impedance mismatches that occur when they've mixed wire gauges along the loop, trying to run the stuff in the same bundles that have other digital (ISDN or T-1) connections present and even on occasion trying to run xDSL on lines that are in areas with strong radio signals can present problems. We also don't know how the FCC is going to finally deal with the tariff rates on it. It's just going to take time but we'll get there. The ~1.5 Mbps ADSL-Lite that Nortel & Lucent seem to prefer is far more forgiving of many of the factors I mentioned above but the RBOCs are still getting anywhere from $400 - $1,200/month for their 1.544 Mbps T-1 lines. Even though xDSL is only asymmetrical (lower transmission rate than receive rate) the RBOCs are still not quite ready to give up a very key revenue source. When you add up what the RBOCs are going to have to spend upgrading their switches and cleaning up their lines it just isn't economically feasible for them to do so except in certain areas. The first places you're going to see it is in the newer neighborhoods that have relatively new copper with a minimum of splices and, most importantly, that have a current subscriber base most likely to accept and pay for the higher-bandwidth access. I wish there was an easier way to explain this, perhaps I can provide some links later.