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Technology Stocks : UBID - an IPO spinoff of Creative Computers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SHGLaw who wrote (457)	2/2/1999 8:06:00 AM
From: Kip518	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 581

SHG, thanks for following up on the uBid-eBay trading Monday. I do think the "mind-link" between these two will not serve uBid well at this point. As for company's PR absence, I've now seen uBid's CEO twice on CNBC and each time he has been extremely low-key and while expressing confidence in his company expresses little excitement about it, which is usually expected of internet CEOs. Maybe this is just his personal style, or, perhaps, given that at the time uBid was riding high with eBay, he didn't want to appear to be hyping. (Oddly, underwriter, ML, has also been mysteriously quiet about uBid as well.) As I mentioned on this thread a couple of weeks ago, and promptly got slammed as backward-looking and anti-internet, IMO, uBid is technically very weak at the moment vulnerable to a serious decline (of course, the stock promptly turned around after that post in step with the eBay split announcement to make me look foolish, but I used to having the market do that). Still, I would not be surprised to see uBid revisit the price levels of it's IPO debut before it can get up steam again. Also, hanging over its head is the possibility of massive dilution as MALL distributes its shares (although, it is possible that MALL will not be able to make the distribution tax-free, in which case, these shares may not appear for awhile as, I would guess, MALL would have to hold them or sell them in a secondary). In full disclosure, I have never held any position in uBid, however, I am short MALL. SHG, regardless of my own POV on uBid, I hope this investment works out for you. regards, Kip

To: SHGLaw who wrote (457)	2/2/1999 10:22:00 PM
From: Liren Chen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 581

I have a different view about comparison between uBid and eBay. eBay and uBid have total different business model. eBay is a person-to-person auction. There is a huge barrier to eBay's competitors to fight with eBay. Why? eBay has a super large user base. Sells want their merchant to auction in a largest auction site and buyers want more selections. Therefore, eBay will bigger and bigger. I believe no body will beat eBay in the future. uBid has a different business. uBid buys merchants from vendors (Please refer IPO prospective) and then auction in its site. If you read quarter report of uBid, it had $7 Million inventory (about 30% of quarter revenue) at the end of December. uBid doesn't have a big barrier to competitors to enter this market. uBid's biggest competitor is Onsale.com. I believe that eBay is not an uBid's competitor at all. Anyway, uBid has a total different business model with eBay. uBid's business model is exact same as Onsale's (Nasdaq:ONSL) before Onsale announced atCost program. Why did Onsale announce atCost Program on January 25? Read Onsale's release and an article in theStreet.com. In short, internet auction in refurbished and close-out products is close to saturation. I believe that uBid's Q1 result will be flat to show saturation in refurbished and close-out products. If you have monitored ubid.com's sales from Q4 to now, you will get similar answer: No growth!!!! Finally, I claim that I don't have any position in eBay and uBid. But I like to short uBid. Unfortunately there is a lack of short availibility from my broker. I could be quite safe to short uBid with longing MALL or ONSL. (Why? If you don't know, please do you own research) Good Lucky! Liren