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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Vendit™ who wrote (4256)2/2/1999 1:55:00 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 41369
 
Vendit: Ruminations of a trader: (ruminating while waiting here for AOL to move up. Your considered, "trading" (<GG>), reply, welcomed ).
I sold all my AOL last Mon. based on my trading rules:

Over time I have developed my own trading rules. They are:
1) Don't be afraid to take profits.
2) When there are good news driving the price of a stock up, it usually lasts three days. People's memories nowadays doesn't last long : it's a three day window.
3) Don't get greedy. ( also known as bulls make money, bears make money and pigs get slaughtered).
4) “ Sell when everybody wants it and buy it when nobody wants it “ ( attributed to financier Bernard Baruch of the 20s ).
5) Do NOT get emotionally attached to ANY stock.
Patience, both IN the market as well as when waiting in the SIDELINES. ( In regards to: SIDELINES - Remember, you can't take advantage of market dips if you are already in the market. It's better to be out of the market more for day trading than in the market. This will allow you to get in and out with profits fast and be on the sidelines should dips occur. Try to be out of the market more with your trades and in the market more with your investments (as long as they are good ones).
6) You need music playing ( good news ) to keep a stock up. When the music stops playing then chances are the stock will go down next.
7)TA: Can be helpful. In It's simplest form you are looking at a waveform and a series of waveforms. If at any one time you are at the top of the wave then it stands to reason that the next MOST LIKELY step is down. You could be wrong of course. But trading is not a science. You are ALWAYS essentially weighing and acting on probabilities.
8) If possible always put a stock into the broad background of the Market because if the market goes down everything goes down.

These are some of the rules I follow.

This is why I sold AOL at 175.6 1 week ago Monday: Everybody wanted it. Stock was at it's peak. All the music to be played had played (Earnings, split, etc.). We were at the 3rd day window. Stochastics showed we were nearing the peak of the wave. Market outlook was getting poor because most of the big companies had reported earnings and “ there was no more music playing “.Furthermore I was dismayed by near term poor events:
A) First Brazil: This : Throngs of people with drawing savings from Banks. This is what started the 1929 market crash.
news.bbc.co.uk
B) The world's leader ( the US President ) that could potentially hedge us against Bank runs may be impeached/ removed by next week's vote in Congress.

So were do we go from here with AOL?
I still think it's a great stock. If one is a long term investor I would not sell and I would just ride this.
I am looking at a new entry point. I think there is good support at 155-156. I will buy back all my position and that will give me a 10% increase in shares. If it goes that low. I don't know.
All IMHO.

PS:I will try to make an earnings play with Dell before I get in AOL. Just a 1 week deal.
Wish me luck,

&#61514;

TA
(back later ).



To: Vendit™ who wrote (4256)2/3/1999 7:57:00 AM
From: RocketMan  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 41369
 
I agree, Vendit. We are seeing the Greenspan effect, which cost me a bundle last fall when he had that surprise interest rate cut. Since that time, I have stopped trying to time the market, and just hold my long-term plays such as AOL.