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To: Paul Engel who wrote (72698)2/2/1999 2:45:00 PM
From: GVTucker  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
Paul--My system won't allow linking of MSDW research, so I'll transcribe this morning's note.

"We upgraded our rating on Rambus to Outperform from Neutral based on the recent weakness in the stock and our belief that our long-term investment thesis for the company remains intact. Our price target is $110. We believe that our current earnings estimates remain achievable and potentially conservative. RMBS has come under selling pressure of late owing to delays in the shipping schedule of Intel's 820 chipset. We believe that Rambus's technology is extremely important to Intel's processor roadmap; thus, we believe Intel is highly motivated to solve any remaining technical issues and ramp the Rambus memory architecture into the mainstream PC market in the second half of 1999."

In other words, it sounds like Edelstone is saying that the long term story is intact, and the downdraft is a buying opportunity. His downgrade from 12 Jan was around $100/share, which should give us an idea what he thinks the upside is.



To: Paul Engel who wrote (72698)2/2/1999 2:57:00 PM
From: Scumbria  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
Paul,

The upcoming PIII launch seems to be inspiring great fear and awe....

-with Intel's investors and customers.

Scumbria



To: Paul Engel who wrote (72698)2/2/1999 3:23:00 PM
From: MileHigh  Respond to of 186894
 
Paul,

I posted on this thread. I think it was posted to Tony...

MileHigh



To: Paul Engel who wrote (72698)2/2/1999 3:25:00 PM
From: MileHigh  Respond to of 186894
 
Paul,

I went ahead and reposted below. THese are MSDW comments in the RMBS upgrade.

MileHigh
======================
To: +Tony Viola (72685 )
From: +MileHigh Tuesday, Feb 2 1999 11:48AM ET
Reply # of 72707

Tony and thread,

Edelstones take on Camino and RDRAM deployment--FYI

from the MS report:

Due to the difficulty of delivering the speeds neccessary to support Direct Rambus DRAMs, we believe Intel has encountered normal engineering issues in its attemt to ready its 820 chipset for volume production. Initial samples of the 820 were available at Comdex in November, 1998, and we still believe Intel is on track to introduce a version of the chipset that will support 600MHz versions of Direct Rambus DRAMs towards the end of the second quarter. However, we believe difficult technical hurdles will likely cause upwards of a three month delay in Intel's ability to deliver a version of the 820 chipset to support the full Direct Rambus DRAM spec of 800 MHz.

We believe the delay in the chipset that will support 800MHz versions of Direct Rambus DRAMs is the second slip in the overall chipset schedule, and we now expect it to be officially introduced in the third quarter. However, we believe PC OEMs that traditionally act as an early adopter of Intel technology will introduce Rambus-based PCs when Intel introduces its 533 MHz Pentium III in June. Although these systems will not offer the full bandwidth benefit inherent in the Rambus memory architecture, we believe that PCs with 600MHz versions of Direct Rambus DRAMs will offer twize as much bandwidth as PC100 versions when they run bandwidth intensive applications like video and 3D graphics.

We expect Intel to offer the next public update of it Rambus development efforts during its Developer Forum on February 23-25 in Palm Springs, CA. From a long term perspective, we believe there is little risk of not seeing the widespread adoption of Rambus DRAMs. However, the complexity of the initial deployment of Direct Rambus DRAMs and Intel's mixed track record of delivering chipset solutions on a timly basis will continue to remain a near term risk during the remainder of 1999. While we believe that our current earnings estimates remain achievable, they will likely be at risk if another slip in the schedule occurs, since we do not believe Intel and leading PC OEMs will attemt to introduce a hot new technology like PC-based DRAMs for the first time during the critical holliday season selling period.

MS semi-conference: March 8-10






To: Paul Engel who wrote (72698)2/2/1999 9:05:00 PM
From: puborectalis  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 186894
 
Intel reportedly moves ahead
with 300-mm fab in Oregon

By Jack Robertson

SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- Intel Corp. here has decided to go ahead with
its delayed 300-mm development fab in Hillsboro, Ore., and next month the
company plans to announce a ten-year, $10 billion program to fund IC
production on the larger wafer diameters, according to sources today.

Intel's 300-mm development fab was put on hold last April after the
company decided production tools were not ready in 1998. Intel then
decided to revisit the decision at the end of 1998, and now it has apparently
determined the time it right to restart the $1.5 billion pilot line project.

A spokesman for Intel in Hillsboro said he was unaware of any decision to
announce 300-mm plans but that the fab continues to be evaluated. "The
facility is nearly completed, but the next phase remains in a state of
'suspended animation,'" he added.

When the 300-mm development fab does begin its work, the facility will
focus on 0.13-micron process technologies. Intel is expected to restart the
Hillsboro fab project later this year and eventually expand the facility into its
initial 300-mm production plant, according to the sources. Next month's
announcement will cover a full-blown Intel plan to expand 300-mm
production in multiple plants over the next decade.

Intel's commitment to 300-mm is expected to help revive the chip industry's
lagging interest in 300-mm wafers. Chip makers around the world have
delayed 300-mm plans partly because of a lack of production-worthy tools,
but mostly because of a severe glut of 200-mm fab capacity. To date, only
Siemens AG and Motorola Inc.'s Semiconductor Products Sector have
jointly set up a joint-venture 300-mm pilot line in Dresden, Germany.

One major equipment firm, Applied Materials Inc., reportedly will reinstitute
its own 300-mm program, based on a large order for equipment from Intel
for the new Oregon fab. Along with the rest of industry, Applied froze its
300-mm program early last year when chip makers backed away from
launching even pilot lines.


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