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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BGR who wrote (94182)	2/2/1999 6:10:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Apratim, as the chart indicated, the data are derived from analysts' consensus. They are not mine. I believe that Dell's growth will be more of the order of 45% for the next five years which would lower the CNPEG to 0.43, and CNPEG2 to 0.62. But bear something in mind: growth cannot possibly continue at the current pace, or even 30% indefinitely because within a short period of time (around 10 years) Dell would become the entire industry, and growth for Dell would equal growth for the industry. For Dell to maintain growth beyond the next three years or so it must develop new markets and new products beyond PCs and servers and mass storage. Michael Dell predicted that DELL would control about 25% of the market in four to five years. Let us assume that it takes five years for this to take place and that the market is growing at 17% per annum, and that Dell's current market share is 9%. That implies a growth rate of 43% per annum. If it takes only four years the growth will need to be 51%. I presume that this is growth in units, not earnings, revenues or eps.