To: Ed Beers who wrote (42692 ) 2/3/1999 8:12:00 AM From: Earlie Respond to of 53903
Ed Average memory on board PCs has risen and as you point out, it is a bit of a giggle. Your point is well taken. The 16 mbit price rise results from the fact that it is essentially finished as a consequential part of the game. The numbers of chips shipped will tail off quickly. It's a very short term anomaly. Micron's "partners" with respect to some of these plants, include competing companies and foreign governments. Uugh. Can you hear the board room discussions? (g) MU's numbers suggest that all involved in these plants are taking a bath. TXN didn't spend two years trying to unload these little piglets because they were cash cows. TXN openly admitted that they represented a "big drag". When companies that are right at the edge of the technology are shipping at cost (at best), you can be sure that those a bit farther back are shipping below cost. Micron has indicated that it expects to spend a billion on TXN plant upgrades. If they do, there goes the cash. The $500.0 million junk bond will be two years old this summer. Purchasers of same, who neglected to read the fine print, were more than unhappy when they found out that the interest payments could be deferred for two years. Mu will have to write a big cheque on that one this summer. Then there's those "convertibles" (intel, TXN) that require 6.5% per annum. The interest payments will be well in excess of $100.0 million per annum. That is a bunch of money, especially for a company that lost more than half a billion dollars (operationally) during the past year. If you want to have a chuckle, examine the forecasting math used by some of the analysts. My son's hamster could do a better job. GIGO still reigns. (g) I completely agree with your assessment of Intel's situation and have been saying as much for some time. (see posts on MB thread). Intel's bottom line has been suffering for two years. This year it will be savaged. They are being eaten alive at the bottom of the sales spectrum and that is where the action is. The PE is going to be trashed once the lambs come to understand what is going on. Watching the vaunted Intel peel large wads of dollars from its wallet to try to shore up Rambus spells it out clearly for this observer. Best, Earlie