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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Iris Shih who wrote (19678)	2/4/1999 10:34:00 AM
From: Clint E.	Respond to of 70386

Love that Kurlak guy. had emc from yesterday. Just added intc+csco+veco....2440 is support...See you tonight.

To: Iris Shih who wrote (19678)	2/4/1999 1:28:00 PM
From: drsvelte	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70386

Iris - CTXS From NBMO Tech conference (by Briefing.com) Citrix Systems (CTXS) Citrix Systems enable thin-client computing. By providing a layer of software between servers and any kind of clients, the same application can be run from a server on any type of client. Microsoft endorsed the product in April 1998, pays royalties to use the technology in its multi-environment products, and provide endorsement through November 1999. Presentation made by Mark Templeton, CEO. 60% of cost of owing computer systems comes after purchase. Integration of multiple systems a major headache for corporations. Citrix market is reducing the integration costs by making existing multiple client environment work with network application servers. Two main product lines: MetaFram, sits on top of Terminal Server (Microsoft product), and WinFrame, sits on top of Windows Server Once basic product is sold, upsell opportunities include additional user licenses, load balancing product, security products, all from Citrix. Upsell products carry higher gross margins Product pricing: MetaFram Server: $4,995 for 15 users, additional users $995. WinFrame server: $5,995 for 15 users, additional users: $995. Security add-on is $2,495 per server, Load balancer is $1,495 per server. CFO presented business model overview: 98 97 Gross Margin 93 90 R&D 10 6 Sales & Marketing 30 29 General & Admin 8 9 Operating Income 45 46 Have deferred revenues on books of $98 million Acquisitions in 98: VDOnet (7.9MM), APM (40.5MM), Insignia (17.5), EpiCON (8MM), DataPac, in 10/97 (5MM) New production direction: "Application Dial Tone" concept is distributed ERP apps, where client user does not have to know server configuration for applications. To add a new client, just plug into network, with Citrix client side software installed, Citrix piece communicates with network to locate applications, client side simply makes request. Market is School Admin & Education (large campus possibilities, for example, all students plug their PCs in, get to use Word from app server without complexity of configuration) Also SME market Allows users to have widest possible choice of applications Briefing.com commentary: Extremely well attended presentation. Institutional investors are no different from anyone else, the companies with great past performance in stock price draw the most attention. Nevertheless, Citrix 's greatest attribute, currently, is the Microsoft endorsement and royalty agreement. It makes buying Citrix almost like buying Microsoft, a strong plus. However, contract only runs through Nov. 99, bringing some risk of expiration. Operating margin of 45% is terrific, and does not include in-process R&D non-cash charges. This means it will not have to be restated if SEC changes rules on in-process R&D accounting, as is expected. Overall, a positive story. Montgomery projects revenue growth of 48% in 99, to $367 million, and EPS growth of 36%, to $2.25 a share.

To: Iris Shih who wrote (19678)	2/4/1999 8:05:00 PM
From: Clint E.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70386

Hi IRis. I just got home. Tired, hungry, and cranky! Something looked wrong in the afternoon. I saw the news about the minutes of FOMC that was to be released after lunch and like many thought that one way or another, we would break out of the intraday trading range after the news is released. However, once the DOW recovered but the NAZ, especially INTC stayed in deep red, I was getting worried. Later on, AMD finally fessed up and joined its miserable me-too partner, COMS. Later; Clint

To: Iris Shih who wrote (19678)	2/8/1999 10:17:00 PM
From: Suresh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70386

Iris, the way my friend (very much involved in the industry) see's the sector ; First fundamentalists made the mistake of not recognizing the technical strength in the sector. Now the technicians are making the mistake of believing the strength was due to fundamentals. Anyway... according to my friend the way industry is evolving we have seen the peak spending/year for the industry in constant dollar terms for some time... will be very surprised if this changes in the next 4 years. Anyway... AMAT has started hiring but they may have reached the terminal valuation for this cycle (I think people forget it is a cyclical industry). Usually I don't try to trade against the fundamental read but this year I have decided to throw everything out of the window and just enjoy the free ride. So, for now I am playing both the long side and short side but biased & comfortable on the downside plays for the sector. BTW this might be the first time insiders of these companies never purchased their shares. They just have to do with selling. -Suresh