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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave Gahm who wrote (42754)	2/4/1999 1:21:00 PM
From: DJBEINO	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Micron Technology Rated New Short-Term 'Outperform' at Everen Bloomberg News February 3, 1999, 2:40 p.m. PT Princeton, New Jersey, Feb. 3 (Bloomberg Data) -- Micron Technology Inc. (MU US) was rated short-term ''outperform'' in new coverage by analyst Nimal Vallipuram at Everen Securities. The 3 to 6-month target price is $ 93 per share. The long-term price target is $118 and is rated long-term ''outperform.''

To: Dave Gahm who wrote (42754)	2/4/1999 2:21:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

100% - 10% = 90%. 90% + 10% = 99%. 6 months, txn acquired and bit production down 1%. and this is good news?

To: Dave Gahm who wrote (42754)	2/4/1999 6:08:00 PM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Dave, Kip may not have provided an answer, but the 10-Q did. I'm just wondering how thoroughly it answers the question. From the 10-Q: The decrease in megabits shipped was primarily due to backend production constraints associated with the Company's rapid transition to the .21u shrink version of its 64 Meg DRAM product. The effects of these constraints were partially offset by the additional sales of semiconductor memory products arising from the Company's newly acquired operations. Production > finished good inventory > megabits shipped > ending finished goods ($) ^ ^ ^ ^ (backend constraints) Based on that crude attempt at a simple process chart, I don't completely understand how the increase in finished goods of $28.6 mil (booked at cost of production) and a decline in shipments can really be primarily due to backend production constraints associated with the Company's rapid transition to the .21u shrink version of its 64 Meg DRAM product Are the assumptions about the flow chart correct? If they are, then those contraints came before the goods were availble to be shipped. Kip apparently said yesterday that bit production was up 10% sequentially. You produced 10% more megabits. You sold 10% less. My question is - why would backend production constraints LOWER shipments when they produced 10% more total megabits and finished goods were up? Those backend production constraints have nothing to do with finished goods being available to be shipped, right? I'm assuming that finished goods are those products that made it through whatever bottleneck they're talking about on the backend. They cleared the bottleneck and are available for shipment, right? No way can those finished goods still have to run through the bottleneck, as in theory, that's why they're finished goods and not WIP. The MUEI stuff isn't that relevant here since they had a sequential drawdown. Also, how much of the 10% increase in production was due to the presence of the production from the TI fabs? Were they included? So is it really right to get excited about a 10% increase in bit production if the baseline number doesn't include them? Does the baseline number include them? Does part of the old guidance of 20% and now the new guidance of 35% reflect on the fact that they will now have 3 months of the TI production rather than 2? I can understand them want to build up some inventory for the holiday season, but if that snapshot ended 12-3-98 and Christmas is 12-25-98, that's a fairly compressed period of time. And then we're back to your point... If he did provide an asnwer for that one, where is it? What is it? Was it inventory building ahead of a very compressed last minute filling? Was it a strategic decision, as looking only over the last 3 years worth of 4Q to 1Q, that +30% jump in finished goods is relatively very high? I just got back in, so another question, did Kip Power work better than the anticipation of Kip Power? Down 3 7/8? There's always next conference <g> Good trading, Tom