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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: corporal spewchunks who wrote (94969)	2/4/1999 9:18:00 PM
From: Jeffrey E. Klein	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

John, Dell competes at the lower end with a PC equipped with a Celeron processor and less processing speed. Since this is the information age,I don't know how people could bury their head in the sand and ignore the need for a PC. A stetching out of the period in which PC's are replaced could hurt sales. --Jeff

To: corporal spewchunks who wrote (94969)	2/4/1999 11:50:00 PM
From: Lee Martin	Respond to of 176387

John, My memory is not all that good but I'll give it a try anyway, as the thread will correct me if I'm wrong. The last time I can recall an actual price war between INTC,AMD and CYRX was in the beginning of '97 when the k5 and whatever Cyrix was making was supposed to kill the pentium. I was 100% INTCW (they had warrants then) and cruising with a big profit. I thought "well that doesn't sound good, what am I gonna do now?" I tried to figure out who might benefit from lower CPU prices and came up with 3 answers: 1. consumers-lower PC prices 2. boxmakers-lower component costs=higher margins, increased demand resulting increased revenue 3. MSFT-price of OS stays the same regardless of the price of PC, lower PC price results in higher demand results in higher revenue. I sold INTCW within a couple points of its high back then (got lucky)and put everything on my best bet, DELL. It worked. If history repeats itself (and I know that it does) DELL, MSFT or now AOL (what are all those cheap PC's being used for? Accessing the net through AOL of course!) might be the best bets to take advantage of a CPU price war. Maybe we'll luck out and have more hard drive and DRAM wars and ASP's for PC's will drop below $500. AOL will start giving out PC's like the cell phone co's give out phones to get you to sign a service contract. MSFT will still get its $50 OEM price for each OS and revenues will continue to soar. DELL's margins will increase as it will continue to be the lowest cost hardware producer and so will not have to pass along all of the decrease of component costs to consumers. Hopefully increased demand will offset decreasing ASP's and revenue will continue growing at a healthy rate. Why should analysts care about ASP's? If revenues and earnings are where they should be who cares if ASP's are going down. Everybody had better get used to rapidly declining ASP's because I think it's safe to say they aren't headed higher anytime soon. One other comment, we have got to get INTC and MSFT at least stabilized before any of the techs or the market as a whole is safe. When the idiots running big $$ see INTC,MSFT and the bellwhethers getting hit hard they will dump everything tech. When the rest of the market sees its leadership taken out it goes down as well. I think what we saw today is nothing but BS and am not worried about it...yet. Regards,Lee

To: corporal spewchunks who wrote (94969)	2/5/1999 12:21:00 AM
From: Lee Martin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

John, Just finished looking at the charts of INTC and DELL and refreshed my memory. The price war talk is what stopped INTC dead in its tracks in JAN/FEB97 after the huge runup that started in '95 and continued all the way through '96. Back then I had one stock INTC, until someone on the INTC thread mentioned the warrents and then I went to 100% INTCW. What important for folks worried about DELL to look at is its chart back then. The end of INTC's runup marked the BEGINNING of DELL's latest huge ramp. It took INTC until the end of '98 to stay above where I sold it in '96. Maybe soon it will be time for INTC to cool off for a while again. IMHO all we need is for INTC to stabilize for $$ to rotate into those techs that can increase earnings in this environment. I haven't written INTC off yet as it releases the PIII in a couple of weeks. INTC and the techs should recover due to hype surrounding this event and other goods news that should continue coming for the next few weeks prior to the earnings warning season starting in MAR. Regards,Lee