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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Maurice Winn who wrote (22515)2/5/1999 9:28:00 AM
From: DaveMG  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 152472
 
Grits for the mill:

Message 7673806

Let's do a thought experiment. Imagine a genuinely objective observer from Trinidad and Tobago scanning over the developments of the last two months and evaluating the chances W-CDMA has to succeed.

What he sees is the ongoing, acrimonious debate over the IPR rights that does not seem any closer to being resolved. But he also sees Koreans expressing the most explicit interest in W-CDMA yet seen. He sees NTT-Docomo steaming ahead with their W-CDMA investing and development projects. He sees 14 operators applying for a UMTS license in Finland, despite the insignificant size of the market. He sees China steadily ramping up the GSM expansion and expanding its W-CDMA trials.

So while we still have no idea which way the patent dispute is going and no clear indication whether consumers actually *want* phones with live video, W-CDMA has not lost any momentum despite of these question marks. You would think that the observer would conclude that while the entire project is still risky, it must be viewed worth the risk by a lot of companies determined to spend billions of dollars in the concept.

No way are W-CDMA phones going to cost as little as current handsets.
That's the point - margins will be higher for both manufacturers and operators. But these handsets are not competing with traditional phones - they are competing with laptops and PDA's to become the wireless internet access device of the future.

If Qualcomm really gets 5% licensing fees from W-CDMA equipment, then I have been wrong and Qualcomm enthusiasts have been right. They will be rewarded by enormous stock price gains. That's the way it goes. Almost as good for Qualcomm would be the scenario where W-CDMA would be forced to be compatible with current IS-95 networks: another huge win for the company. I have never disputed that the possibility for these scenarios exists. Is the possibility so high that it makes sense to invest in Qualcomm? This is not an obvious dilemma.

Korean companies bluntly observing that they may support W-CDMA, even if it is not compatible with the IS-95 network currently operating in Korea is significant. So is the fact that the Koreans and Qualcomm apparently were unable to solve their dispute before the case reaches litigation. Can any reasonable observer dispute that Koreans are very important to the 3G dispute and their support for W-CDMA would be hugely influential, considering that Japan and China are already in the W-CDMA camp?

I'm not sure why it is so hard to believe that I don't wish ill for Qualcomm - I'm just trying to interpret the current developments in the field and identify the biggest winners. Would it be easier to trust that I'm striving for impartiality if I were an American? I'd say yes. That's the way it goes.

I can only say that looking at the last two months W-CDMA as a concept is now stronger than it was before Christmas. The surprising willingness of international operators to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in building a W-CDMA network in Finland seems like a sign that the operators are willing to pay up - I don't see the analogy to high definition TV, since broadcasters never showed willingness to make truly substantial investments to make it fly.

Next test comes with the English bidding competition for 3G licenses. And it looks like a stampede is going to be bigger than in Finland. British Telecom, Vodaphone and other major operators seem determined to win a license. The recent big TDMA network deal in USA and GSM network deal in Turkey underline the fact that these standards are expanding robustly. The notion that they are being made obsolete by CDMA simply does not mesh with reality. We should first look at what is happening in the real world - what people and operators are buying and investing in - and only then start drawing conclusions. Not attempt to make facts fit with preconceptions.

All this talk about CDMA in China... where's the beef? I can point to several big GSM deals in the last couple of weeks. I can point to the big investment China is making in launching domestic GSM equipment manufacturers. This is long term commitment. Where are the CDMA network deals? Where is Chinese investment in CDMA manufacturing? I like arguing about what the real world developments are about and what their significance is. But I can't argue with blind faith.

Tero

















To: Maurice Winn who wrote (22515)2/5/1999 4:30:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
 
*CURRENT PRICE IS xxx* Qualcomm is on the way to doing it by the look of this patent! They have a way of monitoring loading of a base station, which is the primary requirement for advising 'SPOT PRICE' customers that "FREE CALLING IS AVAILABLE NOW" or that Michael McGiver has hit a record home run, 'Babe' has gone berserk with thousands of fans phoning home to report the news so "CURRENT PRICE IS $10 PER MINUTE".

companysleuth.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------
PATENT No: 5859838 ISSUE DATE: Jan-12-1999
Load monitoring and management in a CDMA wireless communication system
ASSIGNEE: Qualcomm Incorporated San Diego, CA
INVENTOR: Soliman; Samir S. San Diego, CA
OTHER DETAILS: Legal Rep: Miller; Russell B.
Application Date: Jul-30-1996
Application Number: 688453
Primary Examiner: Olms; Douglas W.
ABSTRACT:
A system and method for monitoring and managing the loading conditions in a CDMA wireless communication system. The system comprises a load monitoring device such as a CDMA mobile station connected to a data logging and processing device such as a diagnostic monitor. The monitoring device is placed within the service area of a base station. The monitoring device periodically initiates a call, is assigned to a traffic channel normally, and logs a power control parameter such as mobile station transmit power or the number of closed-loop power control commands received per unit time. From this information, the load monitoring device can infer the real-time traffic loading conditions of the base station. If the loading of the system exceeds a predetermined threshold, an alarm may be sent to the system management center in order to take some action to limit additional loading on the base station.
---------------------------------------------------------------

The action they will take to limit additional loading on the base station is a big price increase!!

Yayyy! Q!

Mqurice








To: Maurice Winn who wrote (22515)2/5/1999 4:37:00 PM
From: Judy  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 152472
 
Hi, Maurice

These patents look significant. Will QCOM have more positive developments for the shareholders' meeting, do you think?

btw, what did you mean by "Vodafone seems to be the CDMA camel's nose under fortress Europe's tent." ?



To: Maurice Winn who wrote (22515)2/5/1999 6:20:00 PM
From: Pierre  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
 
On January one I sent an email to ITU and got this response on today. The message speaks for itself. The interesting part to me is that the carriers, who truly have a lot of money riding on the outcome and would seem to have a minimal technology bias, are beginning to weigh in on the issue. Thanks, Maurice for reminding me I can run but I can't hide.

Pierre

____________________________________________

Subject:
RE: deadline!
Date:
Fri, 5 Feb 1999 20:33:05 +0100
From:
"Lambert, Francine" <Francine.Lambert@itu.int>
To:
"'Pierre Pfeffer'" <pspapc@home.com>

Some more info on this.

ITU/99-2
5 February 1999
ORIGINAL: English

Consultations on 3G-related IPR issues intensify to keep standardization activities on track

Geneva - Following the deadline for the submission of patent statements on IMT-2000 RTTs (see note 1), both Qualcomm and Ericsson reiterated to the ITU their position in respect of the ITU Patent Policy. Meanwhile, strong support was expressed by the industry at large to pursue the technical preparatory work leading to a single worldwide standard for third generation mobile systems independently from the IPR debate.

Since December, industry members held consultations over what to do next and many have sent clear statements in favour of keeping both aspects of the work separate. Operators, which had been so far generally keeping a distant watch on the process, have now taken a stronger stand in light of the seriousness of the situation for the future of the wireless business.

Key operators from around the world met in December 1998 and again in
mid-January 1999 to discuss the future of 3G. Following the second meeting which took place in Beijing on 14 and 15 January 1999, fourteen key operators (see note 2) sent an open letter to the ITU stating their support of the work of the ITU and of the need for IMT-2000-related IPRs to be granted on fair, reasonable and non-discriminatory terms and conditions. Their letter also calls for third generation suppliers and manufacturers to seek out other IPR holders and put licensing or cross-license agreements in place as soon as possible. Industry associations including the Universal Wireless Communications Consortium (UWCC), the CDMA Development Group and the GSM Association, have all indicated that the ITU's targeted final
completion date for IMT-2000 standardization cannot be jeopardized and urged all parties to consider a compromise.

The UMTS IPR Working Group has also proposed what it considers a way forward to address the IPR issues in a generic approach applicable to all IMT-2000 technology. The UMTS IPR Working Group consists of wireless companies currently supported by UMTS IP Association, a non-profit association registered in France. A similar approach has been taken by the GSM Association.

US Golden Bridge Technology (GBT) also formalized an offer aimed at breaking the deadlock on patents for 3G with Wideband-Packet CDMA (WP-CDMA). The three proposals have been submitted to the special IMT-2000 IPR meeting of ITU Task Group 8/1 meeting in Kuala Lumpur taking place tomorrow Saturday, 6 February 1999.

Most players expressed strong support in favour of keeping the
standardization of 3G within the ITU and urged regulators and all industry players not to take steps that could derail the multilateral process. These latest developments could provide the basis for global agreement on the standardization process.

The ITU schedule for achieving a single worldwide standard for 3G in the framework of IMT-2000 has a critical date that needs to be maintained to keep the project on target: 31 March 1999 when the key characteristics of the radio interface are to be decided.

The deadline of 31 December 1998 for the submission of IPR statements had been voluntarily agreed by ITU Members as part of the procedure for submitting RTT proposals to the ITU to keep the process on schedule. The procedure also provided that when a patent holder references paragraph 2.3 of the ITU IPR patent policy - which both Qualcomm and Ericsson have referenced (see note 3) - in respect of a given RTT, no standard (called ITU-R Recommendation) could be established on the basis of that particular RTT. It is now up to the ITU Members to decide whether a pragmatic approach would not better serve the interests of the industry and consumers in light of the circumstances.

The IMT-2000 IPR meeting of ITU Task Group 8/1 meeting has therefore been scheduled to take place in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, taking advantage of the presence of key RTT proponents and other experts for the meeting of Task Group 8/1 Working Group 5 (2-5 February 1999).

The purpose of this special meeting is to obtain industry advice from ITU members on the best way to proceed with IMT-2000 standardization within the ITU, in view of the current IPR problems associated with category 2.3 of the ITU Patent Policy, taking account of the urgent need by some regions for IMT-2000 standards to be available by the year 2000. The meeting is expected to produce a report for the attention of the Director of the Radiocommunication Bureau, Robert W. Jones, offering advice on how to proceed with IMT-2000 standardization work in Task Group 8/1 during 1999.

The decision on which proposals can be considered in the next phase of the work will need to be made by all ITU members involved in the work of IMT-2000. The next opportunity will be the meeting of Task Group 8/1 scheduled to take place in Fortaleza (Brazil) from 8 to 19 March 1999 whose objective is to decide on the key characteristics for the radio interface in line with the agreed timetable for IMT-2000 standardization.

Note 1 See press release ITU/98-34 of 7 December 1998

Note 2 AirTouch Communications, Bell Atlantic Mobile, Bell Mobility, Bell South Cellular Corp., Cable and Wireless, China Telecom, De Te Mobil, DDI Corporation, IDO Corporation, NTT DoCoMo, Sprint PCS, SingTel Mobile, Telia Mobile, Telecom Italia Mobile

Note 3 Qualcomm and Ericsson submitted statements to the effect that they held essential IPRs on a number of IMT-2000 RTT proposals and are not willing to comply with the provisions 2.1 or 2.2 of the ITU Patent policy; for Qualcomm, the proposals on which they claim to hold IPRs are: UTRA, ARIB, W-CDMA, WCDMA/NA, Global CDMA II. For Ericsson, they are cdma2000, Global CDMA I.

For further information, please contact:
Fabio Leite
Counsellor, IMT-2000, ITU
Tel: +41 22 730 5940
Fax: +41 22 730 5816
E-mail: fabio.leite@itu.int

Francine Lambert
Head, Press and Public Information, ITU
Tel:+41 22 730 5969
Fax: +41 22 730 5939
E-mail: lambert@itu.int

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Pierre Pfeffer [SMTP:pspapc@home.com]
> Sent: Friday, January 01, 1999 7:50 PM
> To: lambert@itu.int
> Subject: deadline!
>
> So what now? QCOM won't give and ERICY appears to have nothing but
> press releases to offer.
>
> Are European wireless carriers prevented by law from adopting CDMA1 (as in the vodaphone overlay trials) if they choose to go that route?
>
> Thank you.
>
> Pierre Pfeffer