To: BigKNY3 who wrote (6937 ) 2/7/1999 11:36:00 AM From: BigKNY3 Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 9523
The Math of Stock Splits: 1 + 1 = 2, or Maybe More By SANA SIWOLOP 02/07/99 The New York Times Page 10, Column 5 ACCORDING to one version of a story, Yogi Berra was once asked whether he'd like to have his pizza cut into six or eight slices. He figured he was pretty hungry; he asked for eight. When it comes to stock splits, many investors seem to have similar ideas. In anticipation of stock splits, they are bidding up stocks by extraordinary amounts. Yet by definition, when companies split their stocks, they create nothing in the way of new wealth, because investors simply receive a greater number of shares at reduced prices. The total value stays unchanged. Consider Pfizer, which announced on Jan. 28 that its board would vote on a 3-for-1 stock split in April. Its stock jumped $5.625 that day, to $127.5625. Yet when Pfizer handed in stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings on Jan. 19, its stock actually fell a little over 6 cents. Splits may be adding to market volatility, analysts say. Shares of I.B.M. slipped more than $17 on Jan. 22, when it posted better-than-expected earnings, yet did not announce a long-speculated stock split. Four days later, when I.B.M. did announce a split, its shares rose $3.625, to $185.625; the next day, they fell more than $7 a share on profit-taking. ''Stock splits have garnered their own momentum players,'' said Paul Cherney, an analyst at the Standard & Poor's Corporation. ''At one time a split might have meant something more intrinsically fundamental about a company's future prospects, but now splits are adding to the market volatility.'' AMONG companies on the New York Stock Exchange, there were 224 splits of at least 3 for 2 last year. In January of this year, splits set a blistering pace -- a total of 35, versus 22 in January 1998. Splits used to be of some importance because brokers charged penalties for so-called odd-lot purchases -- less than 100 shares of a given stock. That meant that a small investor had reason to delay buying until he could buy a round lot of 100 shares; splits thus increased the pool of available buyers. But the odd-lot penalties were eliminated years ago. A share split can be read as a vote of confidence by management, who wouldn't authorize it if they thought the share price would soon fall. But the issue of when to buy a splitting stock is the subject of much research. Studies conducted last year by both Merrill Lynch and S.& P. found big gains in companies' stock shortly before a split, though they did not specifically address performance at the time a split is announced. The S.& P. study looked at 359 New York Stock Exchange issues that had splits of at least 2 for 1 between January 1995 and December 1997. It found that the stocks gained an average of 3.97 percent between the 20th trading day that preceded the official split and the day of the split. The S.& P. 500 stock-index averaged a 2.03 percent gain during that time. The S.& P. study found that the companies that split their stocks saw them grow an average of 16.2 percent in the year after the split, while the S.& P. gained 28.2 percent. The Merrill Lynch study, which looked at stocks in the S.& P. index that split between 1986 and 1998, found that companies outperformed the S.& P. 500 by an average of 27.44 percentage points during the year before a split, but by just 3.91 percentage points in the year after. Graph: ''Splitsville, Baby'' shows splits of stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange with 3-for-2 exchange ratios or more, from 1991 through Jan. 31., 1999 (Source: Standard & Poors Corp.)