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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (37246)	2/7/1999 12:59:00 PM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 94695

Tippet, .53 volume ratio. It has been bouncing from over .5 ( a buy ) to under .4 (a sell ). Pric premium is .61 and I do not track that as an indicator. <What do you look for in predicting a serious decline?> Funny you asked me because I was just documenting what I go through to check things out... probably Greek to you: Daily Market Analyses: 1 - 200 day ratio - check the rainbow dance 2 - HL 26 13 Ratio - check to stoch combo set for middle window and relmo crossovers. 3 - Ratio to 4 week H?L - check GAZ or Spikey thing. 4 - 1 std ratio - DiCorr2 looks good here 5 - BRKADJ - MACD Jan 28 1998 forecasts a month in advance 6 - 2 channel ratio - base good... sometimes leads by a week or so. 7 - BRKAVGY base okay... watch trends etc. In addition, I use a brand new technique to verify market bullishness vs bearishness via systems tests available with my MetaStock 6.5 package. Right now, both NAZ and DJ-30 are very bullish (YES... BULLISH) but VGY is bearish. I also check VIX and currently, based on FIB cycle analysis, I am waiting for the last cycle to complete... sometime within the next 10 days... and the final breakdown (really breakout, but I plot VIX upside down) of the broadening formation. And of course there is the SCY... moved UP this week from .96 to .97 and still a very great danger to the market. I really do not focus so much on timeframes beyond a couple of days, although I do have indicators which forecast 4 days, 2 weeks and a month in advance... and yes, the do NOT always work well. What usually tells me a big move is about to happen is changes in advisory sentiment and oddlot short sales positions as well as option volume and open interest changes. With equity call vs index put volume ratios of 10 and 15 for the open interest, we are not quite there yet. Close but no _ _ _ _ _. (Isn't that a dirty word now?) Also, some longer term indicators like stochastics really help. And they currently say there is another couple of weeks to go before any strong move down. I don't try at this point, to try to catch the inter market nuances... although the latest Stocks and Commodities mag (Feb) has some stuff in it about just that subject... only I think it is between gold and silver. Gonna go read it now! Hope that helps. Bill