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To: jjs_ynot who wrote (92)2/7/1999 4:40:00 PM
From: Mad2  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 489
 
Cable business very difficult to evaluate based on ratio analysis. By their nature they require a fair amount of capital and it is in shareholder interest to leverage equity with debit. This can lead to neg book as in the case of UIHIA (depreciation eaten through equity). This spin of UPC amounts to recapitalization. Breakeven date for cash flow and future cash flow analysis is the way to value these business's. UPC cash flow assumptions are very reasonable. Attractiveness here is the cable is viewed as a franchise with lots of barriers to entry and "unrealised" growth potential (via broadband I Net and telephone).
I spent two days trying too understand this while UIHIA went from 34 to 44 when I jumped in.
Dave I've got a great value play called QFAB. Right now it's at .59 of book and a leadership position in their business. Unfortunatly I bought when it was at .75 to .85 of book ($5-6/share as it was a great buy then) and now it's $4/share. It's a super value right now, but has been dead money for 3 months and may continue to be dead money for another 2-6 months. Additionally if the market suffers a setback so will QFAB and then it'll be a really really super buy. In the last two weeks UIHIA has nearly doubled. Go figure.
Regards, Mad2 (part time value investor)



To: jjs_ynot who wrote (92)2/7/1999 7:47:00 PM
From: steve host  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 489
 
Hmm what is Bid.com's book/break up value and profit margin. It's a laugh.

The fact is the remaining debt (which obviously you ignore the value of their other assets) has absolutly no relation to the the ratio between 2/1 ratio between UPC and UIHIA. Again the debt figure is a FIXED component, it does not change with the price so you don't reduce the ratio of the value of the increase in UPC to UIHIA value.

Again, we disagree and we will see who is correct this week - don't buy it or sell short I really don't care.



To: jjs_ynot who wrote (92)2/7/1999 8:36:00 PM
From: steve host  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 489
 
Dave - OT
"I prefer to buy stocks that have a debt-to-equity ratio of less than 0.5. Then I own the company as a stockholder not the banks as a lender." Is this what you call safe investing -- Bid.com - (you can stick with that company, I will stick with UIHIA and its interest in UPC and the other cable companies around the world) From another good post:

Bid.com on the Toronto exchange - the facts about its cash position, talk about risk:
+ $ 2.177 mill. Cash 12/31/97 as per filed documents
($12.875 mill.) loss 9/30/98 ending 3rd qtr.per. statements
($10.698 mill. ) sub total approx. deficit 9/30/98
+ $ 6.800 mill. proceeds * cash *from 3 equity sales to 9/30/98
($ 3.798 mill.) deficit approx. ending 9/30/98
+ $10.000 mill. proceeds approx.from last placement Nov.98

+ $ 6.202 mill. net operating cash balance approx.
($10.00 mill.) est.loss 4 qtr. based on burn /sales
($ 3.800 mill.) deficit est. approx. ending 12/31/98

This loss 4 qtr. could be larger if they had greater sales or conversely less if companies estimates of projected sales weren't met. Figure is assuming historical burn rate & loss to sales ratios.

** Rodgers provides some cash & $6.00 mill. approx. towards future advertising as part payment of their getting shares NOT CASH ($12.8 mill. total proceeds of the 3 equity sales)

Since we are into mid Feb. I would presume the deficit is now much greater.

BII deficit at the end of 9/30/98 was $21,846,787 or $32,000,000 approx. 12/31/98 EST.if losses to sales are historical.