Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee who wrote (7967)	2/8/1999 6:48:00 PM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

The link to Makin's most recent Economic Outlook: aei.org

To: Lee who wrote (7967)	2/8/1999 7:11:00 PM
From: Liatris Spicata	Respond to of 9980

Lee, Thread- Today has been a day of searching the Japanese soul. Perhaps the sentiments of Sony's chairman Asai Tawara may be instructive to that end. It appears that Sony has announced its own version of Microsoft's various Windows operating systems, which is available on its hot new portable PC called the Vaio. Instead of producing the jarring, cryptic error messages characteristic of Microsoft's operating systems, the Chairman said Sony "intended to capture the high ground by putting a human, Japanese face on what has been- until now- an operating system that reflects Western cultural hegemony. For example, we have replaced the overt, impersonal and unhelpful Microsoft error messages with our native Haiku." The Chairman went on to give examples of Sony's new error messages: -------------------------------- A file that big? It might be very useful. But now it is gone. --------------------------------- The Web site you seek cannot be located, But endless others exist. --------------------------------- Chaos reigns within. Reflect, repent and reboot. Order shall return. --------------------------------- Aborted effort: Close all that you have. You ask way too much. --------------------------------- Yesterday it worked. Today it works not. Windows is like that. --------------------------------- First snow, then silence. This thousand dollar screen dies so beautifully. --------------------------------- With searching comes loss, and the presence of absence: "My Dissertation" not found. --------------------------------- The Tao that is seen Is not the true Tao, Until you bring fresh toner. --------------------------------- Windows NT has crashed. I am the Blue Screen of Death. Nobody hears your screams. --------------------------------- Stay the patient course. Of little worth is your ire; The network is down. --------------------------------- A crash reduces your expensive computer to a simple stone. --------------------------------- Three things are certain: Death, taxes, and lost data. Guess which has occurred. --------------------------------- You step in the stream, But the water has moved on. This page is not here. ---------------------------------- Out of memory. We wish to hold the whole sky, But we never will. ---------------------------------- Having been erased, The document you are seeking Must now be retyped. ---------------------------------- Serious error. All shortcuts have disappeared. Screen. Mind. Both are blank. :)

To: Lee who wrote (7967)	2/9/1999 11:58:00 AM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 9980

I am fresh from reading the latest from John Makin and, as usual, I agree with a lot of his observations but conclude that he is much too negative on his predictions. Makin's “What Next?” can be summed up in two words, excess capacity. This worry works itself into virtually every one on Makin's dismal predictions. Usually “global” or “massive” to make the situation seem particularly dire precede the words. This is hardly a new concern in the history of the world's economies. It is just that today the world is much more connected and therefore “crises” in far away, little understood places sound more frightening. So what? The world had a capital-spending boom and now we have a bust that has caused a recession. This recession has caused bankruptcies, debt defaults and bank failures. Shocking ? Actually this is a well-understood sequence of events that has been repeated many times in many places. The solution is always the same - economic stimulus via fiscal and monetary means. Now I'm sure we could spend all our leisure hours debating which is the preferred method, but regardless of the outcome of that debate an ample dose of both is already being, or shortly will be, applied and will certainly have the same positive result that it has always had in the past. I am sure someone will now bring up Japan as the new model of why stimulus doesn't work in a post-bubble economy. This worry is misplaced, in my opinion. Since Lee asked for my prediction in an earlier post, I will give it. I anticipate that the bottom will soon be reached in world growth rates – probably coincident with a slight slowdown this year in the U.S. economy. One by one the “emerging” economies will begin to reemerge and excess capacity will slowly be filled. I wouldn't be surprised if Japan confounded the consensus and began to grow too. In a year or two business persons throughout the world will notice this and once again begin building capacity, placing renewed demand on world resources. After another year or two, the words “shortages” and “allocation” will have replaced Makin's “excess capacity” as familiar sources of worry. Then the cycle will repeat. I don't see anything new out there that will change this oft repeated pattern. -Robert

To: Lee who wrote (7967)	2/9/1999 5:40:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Lee, the turnips do not agree with Makin, while they do see a spring relapse, toward the second half, they see a liquidity driven market again, assuming the FED's do not actually raise interest rates. I do not see a scenario where the Fed's would raise rates that are still high relative to inflation. I agree that they will not rush to lower them in face of another international tremor, but if our markets get destabilized, they have sufficient ammunition to step in and actually lower those rates and still be in a "restrictive interest rates" environment. So what do the turnips say? They are actually quite jovial and once this early February discomfort passes (and they think this should be over before the week is out), they see a rally resuming but spreading to a larger group of stocks (leaving some the nuts stocks to breathe a little, meaning not responding as well as the soldiers in the market) some of which have quite rational pricing. The troubles according to the turnips start in late spring and early summer (the spring relapse) with influences from places like Asia and South America. This relapse could get the Dow down some 2000 points from its high (the turnips are quoting as a Maginot line the level of 7450), followed by a spirited rally. The reason for a second half rally is the same that Makin quote for troubles in Japan, the 120 trillion yen that will need to be turned over. That turn over will start later this year and some of it will leak into international markets including our own providing a bubble of liquidity into 2000 and thus rising markets. If just 10% of these funds get out (and I think more could) you will have $100 billions looking for places to earn better returns, if $20 billions of these come here over the next year, it will cause rising prices in the equity markets. This year as last, we are actually be the beneficiary of the world deflation, keeping our inflation down, our interest rates down, and possibly declining (if we get to 7450 on the Dow, you will almost surely see the Fed's cavalry to the rescue, particularly if the decline seems a bit disorderly) hitting few sectors but keeping the majority of the economy humming, IMHO. Zeev