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Biotech / Medical : GUMM - Eliminate the Common Cold -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DanZ who wrote (270)	2/9/1999 12:08:00 PM
From: Phil Cressman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5582

Very interesting! I note that production of 18,000 units per day would allow for meeting, in 194 days of production, the 3.5 M units projected for obtaining 3% of the market. This cold remedy market is cyclical in nature so increased production would be required to fill the pipeline in September if the remainder of this year's cold season does generate good sales & therefor good marketing & sales information for the next cold season! While late in the cold season for most of the USA I would expect that after initial shipments are sold out there should still be time for word of mouth sales and reorders as a result. We could expect some individuals (myself included) to purchase for the medicine cabinet to have on hand when cold symptoms arise. Sales for the next three months are only guesswork but even with 50 days production at 18,000 units would cost in the order of $4m to produce & ship. With payment terms of net 60 days this is enough for Gumm to finance this season. Retail sales of 900,000 units would IMHO be outstanding if recorded by May and give us a really good idea of the sales volume for the next season! I would hope the stock trades in the $l8-$25 range by end May if these projections become a reality!

To: DanZ who wrote (270)	2/10/1999 8:10:00 AM
From: majormember	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5582

>>He firmly believes that the company will earn 87 cents this year and stands by his $24 target. I asked him why he didn't increase his target when he increased his earnings estimate from 40 cents to 87 cents to include Zicam and he said that he increased his target from 14 to 21<< <<<<I would be interested in feedback on the estimates in the following write up. Do they look reasonable?>>> Dan, The write up, IMO, is resonable, if Zicam is simply sold on Drug Store shelves without any major media coverage. Due to the nature of Zicam, and the fact that it will most certainly be picked up by Major media...ie: Dateline, 20/20, Major News organizations, I would throw any price projections out the window :--)). BTW, me ex-wife, who is quite skeptical of drugs in general, tried Zicam, towards the end of her cold. She told me it helped her sore throat the first night with one spray. The next day, she sprayed twice, and was helped both with her symptons, and generally felt better. My bottom line: If Zicam's efficacy is shown and put on the air though a major T.V. show and/or picked up by the major news organizations, all bet's on a price target are off. When ENTD went to $80 on promises years down the road, GUMM could do the same with a proven product already on the shelves. This is just my opinion, of course. Skane