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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockOperator who wrote (5920)	2/10/1999 12:03:00 AM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

SO, i respect your analysis, but au contrair >>>Todays action, however brutal, was not a break of the longer term trend (from the Oct. bottom)<<< as i posted earlier, the tech indexes are trending up from the october bottom at very near the angle of the rocket ship of the 6/15 bottom into the july top. this is a parabolic blast, when the parabolic trend is broken, it's time to break out the heavy plutonium and blast pesky tech stock overvalution -g- popular media talk about the bull market and the economy will be absorbed. Peter Lynch will be absorbed. Al the Tow Truck Driver will Be Absorbed. and Yes John Elway will come back for a THREE-Peat and probably make it and send us into one of the worst bear markets since the 30's. bb

To: StockOperator who wrote (5920)	2/10/1999 11:10:00 PM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Making market calls when the trend is clearly established may be impressive and give you a false sense of security. But it is times like these, when the market is either topping or bottoming that you can leapfrog your old understanding of TA. During the last couple of weeks, we have seen an incredible amount of accurate and especially timely calls made by so many on this thread. There's no need to name names. In doing so I would only leave someone out. Congratulations to all of you on your quality of work. Of course no one said we had to be in agreement. Conflicting opinions will often balance the scales, and force you to work harder before typing. During the past couple of weeks we have seen extremely volatile price action in so many segments of market. As well as seeing so many different opinions on which direction those prices might be going. Ralph Accampora alone has gone from a raging bull to bear all in a few shorts weeks. He must have just recently discovered the chart for the advance-decline line. Even many of the pros that I listen to seem to have different opinions as to where we're headed. It almost tempts you to just flip a coin and go with the flo. Of course that would mean you're just cheating yourself out of that leapfrogging I was talking about earlier. Anyway, I believe we are at some sort of fork in the road here. It is obvious to everyone that the bull market has been under huge selling pressure lately. The intermediate term trend for so many stocks and indexes has been damaged by the recent trading. Yet longer term trends are still intact. But because I emphasize closing weekly prices in so many of my posts here are a few things to consider as we head towards Friday's close: Interest rates jumped again today. The market is obviously worried about what AG might say tomorrow. I don't know how many of you heard that the FED has adopted a new policy regarding shifting there bias towards interest rates. It was released from the minutes of a prior FOMC meeting. They stated that if the FED was shifting their bias, they would release it and the end of their meeting. No such indication was released after the most recent meeting. Still all eyes will be on AG tomorrow. Even though I see significant overhead on the bond yield chart. I believe even a modest climb would not be good for high stock valuations. The Vix made a higher high while closing lower today. This chart looks like its ready to break one way or the other. Internets stocks have been under extreme pressure lately. And I believe are closer to breaking either up or down. Many have broken key support areas. And while a few stocks like AOL and YHOO made reversals today, many more slipped even lower. Watch them closely here. The same thing applies to the major avgs. Only the S&P and DOW reversed today. The trannies which performed well last week have given back most of their gains and have broken their intermediate term trend. Many of the stocks under pressure the passed couple of weeks have (IBM, GE, MRK, AMR, and JPM) also put in reversals today. So there are many conflicting things happening. The next two days with the possible acquital of the President and AG's remarks to congress could offer the market a unique opportunity to test this bull. If the news is good (which I believe it will be) pay close attention to any divergences that may pop up. Any rally should be strong and broad based. Pay close attention to the bond market's reaction to AG. I have many price targets that I could mention however, I've babbled much to long already. I'll save them for the weekend when its easier to assess the damage done this week. Good luck trading. SO