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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockOperator who wrote (6026)	2/10/1999 11:32:00 PM
From: Cymeed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

<<< Ralph Accampora alone has gone from a raging bull to bear all in a few shorts weeks. >>> <<< Interest rates jumped again today. >>> Ralph Accampora in his recent notorious comments used FNM (Fannie Mae) stock price as the barometer indicator of future interest rates. He said interest rate is likely to go up if FNM breaks down. Did anybody notice that FNM has made a perfect Head&Shoulder and appears going down currently? quote.yahoo.com Does this mean interest rate is really heading up strong and the bull run is at risk ? How valid is to use FNM as the barometer of interest rate indication? Comments are appreciated.

To: StockOperator who wrote (6026)	2/11/1999 7:32:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

StockOperator, Good post, thanks. It is good for the thread to get various opininions with details - such will just stimulate more thought. Its important that those reading this thread, fully understand the time frame, which will vary from intraday to long-term holders. What is important to a day trader, may not be important to the long-term holder. As you previously mentioned, chasing the ripples is not important to you since you are a longer-term investor. On the other side the long-term trend does not mean much to me, but what is important for me is the short-term reversal points and short-term trend (1-5 days). By the time we get confirmation of the long-term trend I will probably have already made numerous trades in both directions playing options. So I really dont care what the longer-term trend is. I mention this in detail since I do get response where some are trying to apply my short-term reversals for longer-term picture. As for the immediate future, I feel the key to watch is the market internals, especially the NEW HIGHs/LOWs. If the NEW LOWs start getting above 100 consistently, thats a real sign of trouble. On the other hand if the NEW HIGHs were to get back above 100 consistently that would be a good sign that the BULL is back in force, unfortunately I dont see that happening, since in the runup from the OCT LOWs the new higs were not able to stay above 100 for more than a few days. If it couldnt do it during a 2000+ plus rally, it dont look good now. If the NEW HIGHs/LOWs, just stay in the current range I feel that the market will just continue what its doing, and that is basicly range-trade. seeya