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Gold/Mining/Energy : KOB.TO - East Lost Hills & GSJB joint venture -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Serge Collins who wrote (1480)	2/10/1999 2:10:00 PM
From: johnlag	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15703

Serge - For a guy that seems pretty sophisticated regarding oil and gas, I truly believe you lack understanding of this play, its physical evidence and tremendous potential. You should probably sell your position into the liquidity! RUN!

To: Serge Collins who wrote (1480)	2/10/1999 3:02:00 PM
From: tom shelby	Respond to of 15703

I am surprised that there is any flow at all given their successful effort to plug the well.

To: Serge Collins who wrote (1480)	2/10/1999 3:17:00 PM
From: grayhairs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15703

Yes Serge, the latest gas rates have been just 17 MMCF/d. But, even at that, with a netback of just $1.00 U.S./mcf we're talking about carving up over $500,000 U.S./month. (Much more and it could become meaningful !! <ggg>) Serge, you should recognize that the 17 MMCF/d of gas has been fighting for "wellbore space" with the 32,000 bbls per day of water that has been flowing concurrently with that gas. And given that there's a drill string (and a bit, and some other crap and restrictions) still in the wellbore causing significant friction and flowing pressure losses, it looks to me like a replacement well should have a pretty decent shot. If you were to do additional research and go back further in time, you would note that much larger gas rates were estimated prior to the onset of water production. The first "measured" rates were apparently in the order of 45 MMCF/d but at that time the well was already cutting about 20,000 bbls/d of water. Early "estimates" of the pure gas blow were derived from visual observations of the flare and are apparently in the range of 100 - 130 MMCF/d. Quotes from the Boots & Coots boys have indicated that this well is one of the most serious that they've encountered. I very much doubt that a little 17 MMCF/d blowout would rank in that league. For your info, you may want to visit the www.bakersfield.com site and view the video of the blow out. That video was taken shortly after the rig debris had been removed from over the hole. Experienced oil personnel can tell you that this is not just a 17 MMCF/d flare you're witnessing on this video. One further consideration is that the well was cased and only 17 feet of wellbore was actually "open for flow" during the blow out. No one knows what the rate might have been if they had say 200 or 300 or 600 feet of pay open for flow. But, in such scenarios there'd surely be something even more meaningful to "divy up". Finally, if the pool approaches the mega reserves projected for the prospect, several more wells will be required to produce the ultimate reserve. Then, even a tiny share of the pie will amount to a mighty tasty crumb !!! JMHO BWDIK. Good Luck with your investments. Later, grayhairs