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To: SE who wrote (15245)	2/10/1999 9:20:00 PM
From: Tom Trader	Respond to of 44573

>>Anyone think I am getting overly bearish? Yep, but what the heck!!:)

To: SE who wrote (15245)	2/11/1999 4:51:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Respond to of 44573

Scott, >>Anyone think I am getting overly bearish? Not me. Your bearishness is well anchored in the market action of late, which you have described. >>I am starting to think this might be the beginning of something most people don't want to see..... C'mon, say it <g>. >>Heck, if we go to 45/50 tomorrow, we could have a nice spanking on FRI to 1210 or 1200. If that happens, you could get some people thinking about the exits over the weekend and have a nice ugly Mon. Quite possible. My thinking is 2-3 days correction, but not over SPX 1251, but the market was so weak it could be just a day and a half. The low 1230s make both a magnet and a resistance, so we could be moving sideways. 20% minimum correction to the decline from the top puts the minimum target at SPX 1228, so IMO anything between 1228 and 1250 is possible, and we'll have to play it by ear. Next target down SPX 1160 to be reached by the end of the month. ATG

To: SE who wrote (15245)	2/11/1999 9:02:00 AM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

Scott, IMO - These markets have been driven by your clients IRA, the speculative nature of our generations interest in stock market profits and the flow from international capital to a strong market. Money is these markets....Index's and there respective stocks have been getting the money....Nothing in this environment appears to suggest that we have entered a systemic long-term Bear Market. However this market has been banging up against 9,500 for weeks with little Good News. It has weathered International Monetary complications and economic insecurities. But the Economic Picture that got us to these market levels remains intact. This suggests the markets will go up. So....if earnings decline, interest rates rise, International money slows, economic picture (jobs, etc.)slows from natural cyclical forces...then the markets should correct to reflect this deterioration. Market Indexes might see Oct. Lows. But without a solid - Significant Event - to end the M$ney Flow there are only minor corrections and pauses around the next corner. What could change my mind: 1-Congress comes back and legislates a series of projectionist polices and changes the climate towards international merger. 2-Interest rates accelerate out of a natural demand cycle from some event. 3-Collapse of a major sector of this countries financial system. My guess here is the Insurance Industry....who play the same games as LTCM. 4-Significant War or a series of natural disasters. I take Last Oct.'s Index Lows as the measure of a broken bull from 1987. Chip