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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Watcher's Thread / Pix of the Week (POW) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stock Watcher who wrote (2715)	2/12/1999 9:19:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52051

Stock Watcher, as you requested, here is my take on PROG. The way I see the e-commerce scene, most of the future winners will not be the new start ups, but those established companies that are expanding their sales channels from a very solid base to include the internet, companies such as Federated (they just bought Fingerhut to expand their catalogue and e-commerce), Wal-Mart, Home Depot, and very few of the new entrant that have rapidly sestablished a "brand name (like AMZN) One of these future winners in my opinion, is PROG, they have very well established channels of sales via catalogues, direct mails etc. and have recently added e-commerce to their channels. Their E-commerce is growing extremely rapidly and their traditional business is growing at about 30% per annum. They have finished last year with actual earnings of $.66/share and management (very conservative in forecasts) back the street number of $.85 to $.90 for this year. I am now raising my 1999 to about forecast which was $1.20 to $1.46 ($.35, $.37 $.31 $.42) with sales roughly at $333 MM ($80 MM, $84 MM, $75 MM, and $94 MM), thus I am showing a top line growing at 42% over this year. This should justify sometime during this year (without internut mania) a PE of 30 on $1.46 or some $44/share some time in 1999 and a target of $60 or better in the next two years (barring a bear market when the PE could easily go down to 10 to 15). Zeev

To: Stock Watcher who wrote (2715)	2/12/1999 9:38:00 AM
From: SirAlexx	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52051

Good Morning. DCHT is starting the day with 1.25 as the low offer.

To: Stock Watcher who wrote (2715)	2/12/1999 10:42:00 AM
From: Popiye	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52051

S/W, TSIS has been mentioned before, I respect that, here is the latest from IR for TSIS.. thought you might like to see the direction the company is going: I have taken the liberty of copying a post from JJ Jeffries, head of IR for TSIS. Perhaps this can best answer some of our concerns: Subject: MR.JJ Date: 2/11/99 10:02 AM Pacific Standard Time From: Luke9313 Message-id: <19990211130253.21698.00000115@ng11.aol.com> hope that you either call me at my toll free number 1-888-546-2957 or send me your number so that I can call you at a convenient time with some of the latest breaking news for the company. Any idea on a time frame for when we will be a fully reporting company? Answer: Our current target date for this is July 31, 1999. (Note: This target date is subject to change upon review of the process by our directors, our auditors, and/or the SEC.) Any word on when and if MCI will be up and running? Answer: We are currently developing 2 relationships with MCI. First, (Conferencing Division) We are working with their conferencing division to provide an Internet based Record and Replay service for their client's conference calls. Although our relationship remains excellent, this service this is presently on hold, awaiting their announcement of a full suite of Internet based services (of which our service is one). Second, (Prepaid Division) We are working with their powerful prepaid division that specializes in selling phone cards to corporate clients like Pepsi, so that Pepsi can put out millions of MCI prepaid phone cards as promotional prepaid goodwill items. The MCI prepaid division will enter a reseller relationship with us and has now installed T1 trunklines to our operations department in San Diego. Our system is now tested and ready to go, and we expect to announce this new and exciting relationship in early March. We expect that this one business relationship will grow to be one of the largest income streams for our company over the next 3 years and more. What is the average cost to Interactive Telesis to provide these services: Market Reach, Investor Reach, Record and Replay and TeleSurvey per company, and what is the cost to Interactive Telesis's clients for the services provided. Answer: This begins to tread into areas of pricing and margins that we had best steer clear of in order to protect our competitive position in several areas. Suffice it to say that our net margins on several areas of our services are several times the profit margins of many industries. Please call me if you have further questions in this regard. Many of our investors are understandably interested in how and when our share price will appreciate in value. The reality of our stock price increasing is in the hands and perceptions of the investing public. In good measure, our stock price will increase when you, plus all our other shareholders and the investing public decide to buy more shares in a very good thing, that is TSIS. So I guess you will be very interested in what we are doing to encourage people to buy TSIS shares. First we thought it might be good to build a strong and stable business. Let me tell you this, we are in fact building one of the strongest and most exciting businesses I have ever come across. To date, this company has been in development. That means we have taken the time and expense to develop and deliver some very exciting new technologies and services based around our original IVR concepts. Our client lists now reads like a who's who of Fortune 1000 companies. We currently serve AT&T, Frontier ConferTech, Nike, Wells Fargo & Co and almost 50 other high profile companies. Our focus this year is the telecommunication industry and we are making major strides toward a goal of reaching a dominant market share in our record and replay (of teleconference calls) business this year. Working with major telephone companies is a slow but steady proposition. We are at several stages of advanced discussions and arrangements with several household names in the telecommunications industry right now like MCI and several regional Bell operating companies. We expect that you will see the beginning of large relationships with many of these large clients this year and then a blossoming of business volume in the year of 2000. This year and next year we will extend our market focus into the multi-billion dollar financial and healthcare industries so we expect continued strong growth. Here are some reasons why TSIS share values will likely experience some strong upward pressure in the next 2 years: 1. High Earning Growth Rate – The company has been growing at 200% per year over the past 2 years and has a sustainable future growth rate potential over the next 3 to 5 years of 50% to 100% plus. The year 2000 looks especially promising. 2. Interactive Telesis (TSIS) has no remarkable long term debt and has sufficient cash to carry forward the operations. This means that we pay for operations and growth out of pocket as it were. 3. Great Management Team – Don Cameron (CEO) is one of those proactive company leaders that the management of large corporations like AT&T, GTE, Ameritech, and MCI love to do business with. Mr. Cameron has earned the respect of these major client groups and accomplished the startup and development of a winning company from ground zero with very little other than a great technical team, some serious chutzpa and very smart guerrilla type marketing and excellent management. It seems reasonable to believe that Don will take Interactive Telesis to the next levels of corporate recognition. 4. Mike Hutchison (VP of Sales) is very capable and has proven himself with the major contracts he has been closing with: MCI, Frontier ConferTech, and many more. Mike's former employer was the Anthony (Tony) Robbins organization. Over a 7-year period he was instrumental in taking sales from less than 2 million to over 50 million. Everyone who meets Mike is impressed with his focus and energy levels. Our sales have skyrocketed since Mike has come aboard. 5. Interactive Telesis has sustainable high profit margins. 6. On December 17, 1998 Interactive Telesis started billing on a large permanent contract with Frontier ConferTech. This contract represents a possible 70% to 75% increase in revenue within the next quarter. Large potential increases in revenue from MCI and Bell Atlantic contracts are being negotiated. The stock price has not reflected any of these significant developments yet. 7. Internet Capabilities – Interactive Telesis can do Record and Replay of its executive telephone conferences over the Internet. MCI and Frontier ConferTech are looking into contracting for these services. Also the data from surveys on the pre-paid phone card surveys can be accessed real time over the Internet. Internet valuations are definitely not in the price of the stock. In 2 years, up to half of the revenues could be due to Interactive Telesis' value-added Internet capabilities. In the next months Telesis will be playing up the Internet angle in its promotions and announcements. 8. In 2 years Interactive Telesis should be listed on the NASDAQ. 9. No Institutional Buys or Recommendations Yet – This is both a good and a bad situation. This means you can buy value and is the reason the stock price is not moving in spite of good news. But it also means that you must be a patient investor and patiently wait for the buying frenzy to occur. Most investors have little patience, but I have noticed the rich ones do. 10. It is quite possible that the stock is at the bottom of a 2-year moving trend. This may be in debate now, but if for example, the price moves to $3 (no promises though!), we will all see that the trend was a large 2 year base. True believers of the company have been accumulating the shares and have no intentions of selling till much higher prices. You may notice that even buying $10,000 of stock is sufficient to move the price 10%. So this stock has to be accumulated for large buyers. Once institutions go after the shares, the price will move fast. Also with such cheap price and the good earnings valuations, the stock is a buy-out candidate. (We are not entertaining any buyout offers at the present time) Next, as we develop the good story for our company in this turn-around year, we will be promoting the stock to several investment advisors and newsletters and media around the country to bring in a strong but stable retail demand for the stock. None of this is an immediate or even a tomorrow thing. The growth of the company and its share value will be prudent and incremental until the day a new critical mass is reached ... then ... watch out! So there you have some thoughts to ponder. Please tell me what you think. I would like to thank you for taking the time to contact me, and I welcome your phone calls to me, toll free at 1-888-546-2957. Of course you can also e-mail me anytime at your convenience as well. Best regards, JJ Jeffrey Manager, Investor Relations