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To: Mike from La. who wrote (37456)	2/12/1999 12:52:00 PM
From: A. Geiche	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

So much for Chavez: "After repeatedly telling the market that it wants to help reduce the oil glut in the market by pushing production cuts within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Venezuela has indicated that it may no longer pursue that objective. Ali Rodriguez, the country's minister of energy and mines, said he 'doesn't foresee oil prices rising significantly over the next two years.'" (Market Watch/NewsAlert - Story)

To: Mike from La. who wrote (37456)	2/12/1999 12:52:00 PM
From: SargeK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Mike, Your take on the FGI 2000 Earnings Forecast?????? Reconciling projected FGI Earnings is a problem I find fascinating. 1998 Earnings - $1.46 Yahoo Research (Earnings); 1999 - $1.81 ($1.46 + 23.7%) Median: $1.83 2000 - $2.45 ($1.81 + 35.4%) 3- 5 years 20% (annual growth) biz.yahoo.com IBES: 1998 - $1.46, 1999 -$1.75, 2000 - $1.18, Operating. Earnings 3- 5 yrs 15% (annual growth)) quicken.com While the 1999 forecasts are close (YAHOO $1.81- $1.83) and (IBES $1.75); forecasts for 2000 is unbelievable divergent. If the analysts used by YAHOO are correct and the Earnings next year even comes close to $2.45 then NOW would be a SUPER BUY. On the other hand, if IBES analysts are correct and earnings decline to $1.18 every pop in the market could be viewed as an opportunity to UNLOAD. The CNBC (Holloway/Haines) interview, conference call, and recent earnings and backlog history strongly suggests the YAHOO research is correct and IBES is not only wrong but terribly misleading. Anyone wishing to explain this anomaly are welcome to jump in. The divergence in the above forecasts could easily explain current market action. K

To: Mike from La. who wrote (37456)	2/12/1999 1:25:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 95453

Mike: The next OPEC meeting will tell the tale of what US government really wants. BTW, stock market getting smashed today as bonds get crsuhed and gold starts to move. Looks like yesterday's jump was a one day wonder. OSX down just modestly. Weakness in bonds and strength in gold could portend a jump in crude soon. In a recent post I opined that I expected a big stock bear soon, but that it woulkd be more of a traditional bear with many sucker's rallies on the way down and a lot of day to day volatility. Looks like that scenario may be starting to play out.