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Biotech / Medical : Neurobiological Tech (NTII) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Apache Indian who wrote (444)	2/12/1999 2:20:00 PM
From: Dr. John M. de Castro	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1494

There is no conference call scheduled. There generally isn't for a quarterly report. I don't know anything that you don't. But, let me point out what was NOT said in the release. There was no mention of suspending operations or anything of the kind. All that was said was that "The company will need to secure an infusion of capital to continue the clinical development of its product candidates." I realize that this seems to be reading between the lines. But, it is common for companies that are in serious trouble to let it be known that suspension of operations is a real option. Doing this protects the management from later litigation. The fact that nothing was said in this regard is a clear signal to me that the worse case is that the Memantine trial for Diabetic Neuropathy and the Xerecept trial for peritumoral edema would have to be suspended. I seriously doubt that even that will be necessary. NTII is too close to becoming successful for the board to let it go under for lack of a couple of million. So relax and be patient. John de C

To: Apache Indian who wrote (444)	2/12/1999 2:51:00 PM
From: BRAVEHEART	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1494

Hi Apache Indian, I too grow restless. I cannot imagine the company would initiate these clinicals back in November without some sort of means of surviving through the end of both P-2 clinicals. The first does not end till May the second does not end till Nov at the earliest unless enrollment continues to accelerate. Bankruptcy would be foolish at this point. Companies usually face such a dilemma once results are in. There is more time before that becomes a consideration. P. Freiman is not going to sell out. The company has a Burn rate of around $4 million annually. NTI needs around $2 million to get through the first P-2 test results. Another $2 million or so to get through the second P-2 results. Two million plus cash and I hold beyond March. $4 million plus cash and I hold through the Year. Actually I expect say $1.5 to $3 million from an inhouse/instutional investor sort of financing. Then say another $7.5 million cash up front minimum from Big Pharma for a collaboration. That would give NTI around 2 years worth of cash or approx .77 to .85 cents cash per share. Many companies with similar potential, product development and 2 years of cash with few problems trade around 3 times cash value. Hence I am expecting a shareprice of around $2.50 pre clinicals if these events come to pass. Of course a surge on such a collaboration with Big Pharma could force it to say $3 maybe $3.5. Once/if we pass both P-2 clinicals and announce the start of P-3 clinicals I would expect the stock to trade between $3.5 and $5.5. Approval for both indications and say $8 to $16 assuming at most 10.5 to 15 million shares total outstanding and normal product royalities. I will reevaluate my position in March. For now I grow restless. Reason keeps me invested for a time. PS: I know risks are increasing at this point in time. I am choosing to stick it out. I am just trying to be as up front with my position as I can. I say a lot. One also has to realize the potential risk's involved at this time. While I don't think they are as critical as with some companies in this position. I don't want to overlook the potential pitfalls along the way. BEST WISHES Jeffrey