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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (6322)	2/13/1999 2:12:00 PM
From: Impristine	Respond to of 99985

'pause and takes a drink of water ' LMAO!, thanks jim, that was funny....

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (6322)	2/13/1999 2:48:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

James .. Re calling tops and bottoms. Seems to me that in a uptrend calling a top is very important .. calling bottoms during a uptrend doesn't take much talent <g> and one can afford to be wrong as often as one wants to be <g>. One current trend that I've noted is the slopes of the 20 day and 50 day averages. These slopes are driving further and further from the zero line .. in other words when the trend is down it is down faster than it was years ago and when it is up it is also faster. Again the trend is intensifying. I believe that this trend is in place because of internet stock trading. The system has become defensive toward this trend .. All over the exchange system there are stories about different types of trading being curbed. I consider this to be signs of an upcoming system wide overload/crash. The oscillations can only get just so wide and then BLAMMMMM. Anyway, with the pattern in place and growing, I see roughly a 70% probability that the current downtrend will take out the Oct. lows. If we do then the importance of calling a bottom will become very high again. FWIW Gersh

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (6322)	2/13/1999 2:55:00 PM
From: Vitas	Respond to of 99985

Jim, using Freeburg's variation of the Titanic, which assigns points to the components of the Titanic rules and adds the 3 year Treasury note filter, the signals up to the date of his newsletter dated April 7, 1992 are as follows: .............percentage drop 05/21/65 8.8 12/28/65 22.3 04/07/72 5.5 08/14/72 5.3 11/03/72 41.3 02/12/80 15.6 11/13/80 4.3 05/04/81 20.6 10/19/83 12.0 04/10/87 5.3 09/02/87 33.2 10/18/88 5.6 02/13/89 1.8 05/14/90 16.2 I believe you are supposed to be able to reverse the rules somewhat for buy signals. Vitas