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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SargeK who wrote (37518)	2/13/1999 3:59:00 PM
From: John Carpenter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

OSX volatility accelerated at the beginning of 1996. Although we don't have prior OSX measurements, if we use SLB as an indicator the following observations can be drawn: 1983-1990 SLB remained in a $12 to $20 trading range 1990-1996 SLB remained in a $25 to $30 trading range This recent up/down cycle(from 1996 to the present) is characterized by both a shorter up/down cycle in terms of time, but greater in terms of volatility. In summary, we've had more longer, multi-year dead money periods than we've had shorter duration, up/down volatile cycles. This recent boom/bust cycle has just played itself out more rapidly than in the past. A gentleman from an oil drilling company told me he thinks the cycles are shortening. Yet, I think that the most recent cycle we've been through is an anomally. If things revert more to their historical mean, we should be experiencing dead money for a while. Certainly, integrated oil companies are expecting multi-year oil price weakness. Unfortunately for OSX longs, the gentleman from the oil-drilling company propounds wishful thinking, while the major oil companies are facing reality. It's back to the dead money historical norm.