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To: John Carpenter who wrote (37526)	2/13/1999 4:21:00 PM
From: SargeK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

GLOBAL RECOVERY UNDERWAY John, I agree the cycles are becoming more volatile and compacted. The huge benefit of the Internet and message boards such as this one is that hype and spin can be negated by anyone with a keyboard and the willingness to do cursory research. The financial/economic spin doctors are much more dangerous than the political WAGs because the former can cost you REAL MONEY. Last Fall when the sky was falling in and the populace was being bombarded with doom and gloom about the Asian contagion, many countries were already pulling out of recession.I don't measure a countrys' health by GDP which lag real events and are subject to political manipulation and contamination. I look at the Stock Indexes which reflect the mood of a country in real money by real people buying and selling based on their own self expectations. Take a brief look at the stock indices of a few and decide for yourself if a "Global Recovery" is indeed underway..... Country/Index Low,month& Year/Current Index Brazil - 4797-9/98, 8952 Mexico - 2844-9/98, 4101 Venzuela - 2691-9/98,4098 Hong Kong - 9000-8/98,9425 Japan - 13122-10/98, 13974 S.Korea - 508-6/98, 552 India -3042-10/98,3337 China-1064-8/98,1090 quote.yahoo.com^bsesn&d=b (Click the chart button) Only China stands out as a major country whose index has yet to reverse trend and it looks like it tested a previous bottom and headed up last week. Let's take a closer look @ China. "Kiplinger" in a pamphlet entitled "Prepare Now for the 21st Century" had this to say. China will dominate developments in the Asia-Pacific region...driven by its size, population,productive capacity. Plus its movement toward consumerism and continuing growth in nuclear capabilities.China's economy will double in the next 8 years or so making it the fifth largest in the world with ..$1 trillion of GDP. Double digit growth in the years ahead will result in 200 million new middle class consumers." Can you imagine the increased demand by just this one country on world crude as these millions of consumers switch from bicycles to autos. Throw in India which is making big strides in boosting productivity through a growing highly educated middle class. More families have more money to spend..consumerism sweeping the country.......etc The U.S. is shutting in marginal producing wells by the tens of thousands as our dependence on foreign energy grows..expecting to hit 60% reliance on oil imports by 2007. So on and so forth .Good luck all K

To: John Carpenter who wrote (37526)	2/13/1999 5:09:00 PM
From: SargeK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

John, Your choice of the words: "If things revert more to their historical mean, we should be experiencing dead money for a while." suggests a very long wait for recovery. The Phrases "Dead Money" and "Dead Money Zone" appear to be the new lexicons to be added to the "World Oil Glut".. I interpret these catch phrases as not so subtle persuasions to Value Investors to unload Undervalued Assets @ Depression Level prices. The World Crude Supply/Demand Ratio is coming into balance and next months OPEC meeting could very well develop a shortage in the not distant future. Only time will tell. The Exporters will act in their own nationalistic interests. They did so last year. They just didn't go far enough. The OSX has gone above sixty during the so called "glut" when conditions were less favorable than right now. As far as so called "Dead Money" is concerned FGI stock moved from 9 3/4 to 13 plus in 2 weeks. That is a 30% plus swing, quickly and dramatically. Average daily volume tripled in the day following the earnings release. I don't call that "dead money", I call it dynamic activity with healthy vital signs. GIFI and others, reporting healthy earnings and backlogs have demonstrated similar signs of "LIFE" in the fast lane. K