To: BLong who wrote (4800 ) 2/15/1999 1:33:00 PM From: Stuart C Hall Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19700
BLong,Stuart, I guess I'm confused. Even if the price of Lycos bounces back to the $127 range as CMGI board members want, isn't the deal for a fixed number of USA shares? Then why would it make a difference? From one of the Press releases:The merged entity will be 61.5 percent owned by USA Networks, Lycos holders will get one share in the new company for each Lycos share, equal to about a 30 percent stake, and Ticketmaster holders will get 0.45 shares in the new company for each share held, amounting to a 8.45 percent ownership, according to Hatch. In the CIBC research note downgrading Lycos, analyst Henry Blodgett stated, ''Although we like the USA/Lycos story ... and we have great respect for the vision, talent and resources of the various parties involved, we cannot justify an 'Internet' revenue multiple for the stock.'' _____ LCOS will own 30% of the new venture. Calculating CMGI's 20% of LCOS yields CMGI 6%. Mixing the valuations of the different companies (USA, TMCS and LCOS) reduces the market valuation of the LCOS position since it is no longer a pure Internet play but part of a larger media conglomerate. CMGI has just gone from owning 20% of a highly valued Internet stock to owning 6% of a more traditionally valued media company with a leading Internet presence. Will CMGI hold this position now that is it not a pure Internet play? Will they block the merger in hopes of LCOS returning to former valuations so they can negotiate a more profitable deal? I think CMGI's thoughts were that the Home Shopping Network infrastructure and customer base was going to open the floodgates for LCOS E-Commerce. Maybe CMGI is just ahead of the market thinking on this fact. I'm very happy that CMGI is pushing back on this deal. However, I'm sorry to see that we are hurt in the short term. To answer your question BLong, CMGI's stake in LCOS is hurt by the more traditional valuation models used by CIBC for the new combined entity. In the interest of us, the CMGI stockholders, CMGI is fighting to retain LCOS' previous valuation at all costs. If the deal is for a fixed number of shares in the new company it is important to CMGI that those shares carry the valuation that is closest to their core business, Internet, rather than to the majority owner, USA. I hope that made sense. Regards, Stuart