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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gbh who wrote (47101)	2/15/1999 8:35:00 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Gary: You are dead wrong. There are TWO ways. Public disclosure is one, and having one's favourite analyst(s) drop his/her/their estimate(s) is the second. Do yourself a favour and check with First Call as to how many "downward revisions" occur in the last few weeks before the numbers come out, then check as to whether there was a public comment made. I've done this for many moons. You used the term "usually" with respect to the use of public disclosure. My records suggest that there is a slight bias to the public disclosure route but that this bias is rather recent. I think it has come about as a result of the extortion many tech firms have to endure as a result of the class action nonsense. I have a better-than-normal perspective from which to comment on all of this because I am frequently approached by these bounders and offered rather substantial sums to provide assistance. I have thus far declined, I might add. Incidentally, given the exalted peak at which Dell sat a week ago, I would argue that Dell has played this rather well. As I noted earlier, over 50 price-to-book, provides massive vulnerability. I can't tell you why that is so, but it is a historical fact. By having an analyst throw a rock or two, some of the steam is taken out of the numbers release. If they played the game brilliantly, the company's numbers will slightly exceed Nile's figure, and there will be a small sigh of relief. Niles won't suffer,....after all, he was both right (calling it down) and close (a bit too low). One has to be in tune with Wall Street's superb understanding of human psychology. With respect to timing, see my earlier post. EPS can be fiddled rather easily compared to revenues (although this too can be shuffled from quarter to quarter). When a company's stock is at these levels, any indication that revs won't be as expected can be devastating. Best, Earlie