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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Li Cai who wrote (16026)	2/15/1999 7:59:00 AM
From: KM	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

You Just Know the Government Is Going to Melt Mister Softee By James J. Cramer 2/15/99 12:17 AM ET Microsoft's (MSFT:Nasdaq) going to lose. You can feel the rumbles. You know it is just a matter of time. The government did a better job than Mister Softee. Oh, let's just call it like it is; 'Soft blew it. 'Soft should have won. The moment America Online (AOL:NYSE) merged with Netscape (NSCP:Nasdaq), the case should have been over. But Microsoft's counsel was inept. Ever since Microsoft's turn came it has been all down hill. The boys from Redmond may know software, but they sure figured wrong about the government. As someone who took Alan Dershowitz's criminal procedure class, I learned early on: The government is all-powerful, can spend any amount of money, and invariably gets its man. This particular legal team put together by Joel Klein is probably the finest ever assembled by the government. It is as of the '27 Yanks were reborn as a law firm. Murderer's Row. Which is why I find it so amusing that people actually think this team is going to break up Microsoft, something that would benefit the shareholders. The government doesn't want to reward Microsoft or its shareholders. The government wants to punish them. The government wants to rid Microsoft of its ability to boss around the industry. It wants to melt Mister Softee. The government wants the operating system to be owned by everybody. A common carrier. Think Greyhound. And Greyhound has never made a lot of money for anybody. Think about it. What can the government do to ensure that Mister Softee doesn't go back to its old wicked ways? It has to take Windows and make it so that it is owned mutually, by everybody. Then Microsoft can't dominate, and domination is what the government had proved, or more importantly, what the company has failed to disprove. Why do I still own some 'Soft if I think this? (I own calls and have sold common against it, and remain committed to holding some of the stock as this period plays out.) First, nobody believes what I am writing except me, for now, and it will take forever for people to think anything but positives will come out of this trial. So during the interim, I intend to make money on the long side from this stock. Second, without a loss in the case, this is my favorite stock because the fundamentals are so strong. Lastly, as inept as 'Soft has been, it will appeal and appeal and appeal -- and, in the end, I don't think it will matter that much what the government initially argued for. But that doesn't mean people won't freak out in the interim. And when the common carrier remedy is sought, there could be some rough sledding for 'Soft. (I will again probably buy the stock during that period.) What do I think about the government's case? 'Soft, the company, has made me more money than any company, save Intel (INTC:Nasdaq). I want 'Soft to win. But I want the Sixers to win, and I wanted the Eagles to win, and I will root for the Phillies. And, like 'Soft, I've got some bad news: It ain't gonna happen. Why did Microsoft do such a bad job? Why did Microsoft lose a winnable case? For one simple reason: like Mike Milken, the world's most powerful man in the '80s, the head of Microsoft did not understand what I learned the day I got out of Harvard Law School and saw where the smartest people from my class went: not everyone works for money. The best of the best, the very smartest guys in the country, work for the government's client, the People of the United States. The Justice Department's team simply bested Microsoft's team. And now we, the shareholders, must pay for the losses. If you own the stock because you think you are about to get a lot of Baby 'Softs, I think you will be gravely mistaken.

To: Li Cai who wrote (16026)	2/15/1999 9:06:00 AM
From: ToySoldier	Respond to of 74651

Li Cai, The logic I see behind why MSFT continues to hold its own in front of sooo many soon-to-be-disasters for MSFT is that there are sooo many shareholders out there that just cannot believe that MSFT is actually a normal company with weaknesses. If you want to see MSFT's life-cycle, you can look at IBM in the late 70s and into the 80s. No one in the right mind thought that anyone would ever best IBM in the PC world. It was their market to control, but they did lose it. So the stockholders will only come to their senses when the actual DOJ trial announcement occurs and it is official that MSFT lost the case and remedial action will be applied to MSFT. Their are still too many stockholders out there that are saying and investing with a "MSFT is invincable and nothing bad could ever happen to our gravy-train". But it will - and we will see it this year. Toy

To: Li Cai who wrote (16026)	2/15/1999 10:18:00 AM
From: blankmind	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

- Li Cai, the Democrats are very dangergous peole and are capable of anything. - But to think they could or would seriously wound MSFT is going a little far. - As some have said, so what if they force MSFT to divest its internet business? May even be a boost to shareholder value. - In all likelihood, MSFT stock price surges when the trial is over - no matter the outcome.

To: Li Cai who wrote (16026)	2/15/1999 10:26:00 AM
From: John F. Dowd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

There is nothing new in this case other than MSFT demonstrated it stinks at doing video demos. As a shareholder I find this unbelievable that MSFT couldn't prepare a decent demo without mistakes that would allow the gov't. lawyers to distract the judge from the issue at hand i.e. Has the consumer been harmed?. But Jackson has had his mind made up from the outset and the trial has been a sham. The question is - what is this bozo going to offer for a remedy before he is overturned. Split up MSFT? Fine them? Violate intellectual property laws and confiscate Windows to the public domain? No this case, as poorly as MSFT has defended itself, has no merit and will be overturned by appeal thus making Jackson look like the bozo that he is and has JFD.