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Technology Stocks : MEMC INT'L. (WFR -NYSE) The Sleeping Giant? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NJ Investors who wrote (4205)	2/16/1999 8:20:00 PM
From: Andrew Vance	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4697

My advice is to keep an eye out on news reports that present new fab construction, capacity upgrades at existing 8" (200MM), and ramp ups in capacity at some of the DRAM and logic facilities. The key to WFR's success is the recovery in semiconductor manufacturing. When AMAT reported its quarter today, it stated they were seeing both capacity and technology purchases. Given this bit of insight and its B to B of close to 1.3 to 1 this past quarter, we must assume the DRAM producers are starting a recovery cycle. It also means that some shells or existing fabs are being expanded from their present levels. I am watching for the new devices that are released in the various journals and the impact they will have on our everyday life. These devices will normally experience nice ramps in demand over the course of its product life cycle. Sure, they will probably replace some older devices, but the market acceptance broadens each and every day. One thing I would especially look for dow the road, is the perfromance of DPMI, MASK and PLAB. If I were trying to look for definitive indicators of positive movement, I would start plotting a graph of WFR and these 3 mask-reticle stocks. As the reticle stocks improve in price, they are usually backed up by financials. this then translates to new designs and product ramp up cycles. The only other thing I would keep close eye on, is the VEBA capital infusion that is coming up. I plan to take advantage of the opportunity to keep my investment from being diluted. As far as I am concerned, this reversal in WFR might be partially due to this upcoming event. Even DELL's numbers today and its 7th split in 7 years, should indicate that PC demand has not abated. DELL may not be growing as fast as in the past, but it is still growing, along with the rest of the electronics sector. Anyway, feel free to ask other questions, but looking for fab expansion announcements, fab upgrade announcements, good revenues and earings from the IC sector, improved reticle stock prices, etc. should all be good lead ins for a strong recovery. Personally, I do not think there is enough wafer capacity out in the marketplace that would allow WFR to go under. Do not take this the wrong way. I am very positive on WFR and think it is a matter of time. Hopefully, this commentary will bring us as much luck as it did the woamn I met on a plane late last year. We got to talking and she wanted a decent investment, WFR was at $3 that day. I offhandedly said, Buy WFR at $3 and dump it at 11 next year. I wonder if she did that<GGG>. Anyway, WFR is one of my top stocks in my personal portfolio and I expect good things in 1999 and the first half of 2000. The real deal may kick in somewhere in 2001, when 300mm kicks into gear. Andrew