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To: Jing Qian who wrote (5414)	2/15/1999 1:18:00 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

Jing, Yes, I could actually picture this in my mind's eye: > In 2010, kids will have to go to a tech museum to see what a phone line is.< I admire your spirit and confidence. However, when the kids visit the section with the phone lines, where do you think they will find the current generation of HFC hardware located? Before or after it, on the time line? Technology is advancing generations... every how many years? In other words, and I ask this in a genuine sense, how long will (could?) the current collision-domain approach now being used by the MSOs last, before it is thoroughly swamped with tomorrows traffic burdens, and before they recognize the merit to going pure FTTH? Any thoughts? Regards, Frank Coluccio

To: Jing Qian who wrote (5414)	2/15/1999 3:02:00 PM
From: FR1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Speaking of AT&T - when is the stockholders vote on T/TCI merger? It should be real soon.

To: Jing Qian who wrote (5414)	2/15/1999 3:33:00 PM
From: Xenogenetic	Respond to of 29970

Jing Qian wrote: It is TOO EASY to drop AOL and switch to cable once cable's availibility becomes widespread. A customer invests almost nothing in AOL, except for a 56K modem card. However, once they switch to @Home, they have to invest $100+ for a setop box and networking card. My point is, it is easy for AOL to win 17M, but it is also easy for them to lose it. Easy come, easy go. Hi Jing. I at first also saw this as an advantage for ATHM. But then when I subscribed to the service ATHM stated that it comes with a one month trial period where the I can get my money back if I am not satisfied with the service. I would suspect this offer erodes the $ investment advantage. Nonetheless, ATHM's subscriber turnover rate is a meager 4%, which is much lower than the dial-ups. I would imagine that either the hassle of having the cable guy come back and invade your home to retrieve the equipment, or, people are hooked on the speed and always on features of ATHM (like I am) is what's keeping them @Home. I like to think that the latter is probably the more likely scenario. Take care. -Adam

To: Jing Qian who wrote (5414)	2/15/1999 4:15:00 PM
From: RocketMan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

But in the mean time, if ATHM executes their plan successfully, it will also capture 30M by 2001. Jing, I don't know if you are refering to ATHM broadband, or projecting all ATHM subs, but that seems to high for broadband. Last Septembet Forrester Research estimated 16M broadband customers by 2002. I don't know how reliable this prediction is, but it is a starting point. So even if ATHM were to capture every one of those, that is less than AOL has today -- 17M paid subs, 50-some M total. And a more likely capture number for ATHM might be 50%, because in spite of internet time I still don't think I will have to go to the San Jose museum to see a dialup modem in 2001 or 2002, as someone else suggested. So, perhaps ATHM might have 10M broadband subs by 2002, and the remaining 6M might be split between DSL, satellite, and wireless. That is hardly a knockout punch. The best that I can see happening for ATHM is that they will create high demand for their service by then, they will still have a barrier to entry in cable, and their will be increasing their share much faster than the dialups. In which case the stock price should do very well, although I'm afraid the current valuation assumes a lot of that will happen. BWDIK