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To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (5422)	2/15/1999 3:24:00 PM
From: E. Davies	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

From the sound of your message, one would conclude that you believe that we are on the threshold of some form of 'ultimate' Far from it. The goal of my posts is to say that I think that the world progresses in a much more continuous path than people give it credit for. People need to adapt to change in gradual steps. The funny thing about an exponential curve is that it always looks like it is just on the verge of going vertical, then the scale changes and it still looks like it is just on the verge of going vertical. Switching to cable vs. dial up will take 5years minimum, switching to fiber to the home will take at least 10 years beyond that, probably 20. One interesting factor in this will be if the RBOC's really are threatened by telephone over cable. Their response to survive might be to leapfrog both cable and DSL with fiber. In many ways I hope T is not successful enough to scare the RBOC's out of their slumber. Eric