To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (99701 ) 2/15/1999 5:09:00 PM From: Starowl Respond to of 176387
Briefing.com looks at Friday and to tomorrow, with the following commentary related to Dell, excerpted from briefing.com's analysis of the tech sector. When it writes "today", it means Feb 16th: "Record gain one day, fourth worst day the next... Such is life these days in the topsy-turvy tech sector... About the only certainty is volatility... Friday's collapse was triggered by a couple of analysts who questioned whether Dell (DELL) would meet revenue projections when it reports results later today... Now it's one thing when Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Newbridge Networks (NN) warn of trouble ahead (as they did recently), it is quite another if the street can't count on Dell to deliver its routine 50% top/bottom line growth. "Of course the reality is that there is nothing routine about 50% growth rates... They are exceptional and ultimately unsustainable... We are not saying that Dell will miss its number today - in fact we expect company to exceed estimates by a smidge... However, the day will come - and probably sooner rather than later - when Dell's tremendous growth rates over the past few years begin to slow... And when they do, the stock will get hit hard considering that the market continues to grant DELL a very rich multiple because of its long history of dependable growth. "As for how today shapes up, Briefing.com expects investors to remain skittish ahead of Dell's earnings... Selling should be contained, however, as a number of traders will take advantage of Friday's exaggerated retreat to do some select bargain hunting. . . ." "Dell's (DELL 89 7/8 -12) revenues being put into question isn't new... Seems like a couple analysts raise red flags prior to each report... So far, Dell has more than delivered on expectations... Given rebound in Asia, strong domestic business, and lack of comments from company, Briefing.com expects DELL to live up to/exceed the consensus forecast once again... Street looking for gain of $0.31... Keys to market reaction will be revenue numbers, forward commentary, average selling prices and stock split... Not sure about a split, but rest of the news should be positive... Company's report will set the tone for the rest of the group/sector." For what it's worth. My interest is in Dell's server and storage business, peripherally from an Adaptec angle. Starowl