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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (99739)	2/15/1999 6:52:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Chuzzle, Let's see, you argue that Dell lost market share because they are seasonal. Then you say they aren't seasonal. It's hard to argue with a guy who proves his own self wrong. Still waiting for the market share data that proves that Dell loses market share every third to fourth quarter. That, alas, though interesting, wasn't it. Just let me know how long this seasonal pattern of losing market share 3Q to 4Q has been going on and whether this time was better or worse? Hmmmm. Lackadata to back your claims, dude? BTW, I agree with you that seasonality is one of the reasons Dell lost market share. I mentioned that on the CPQ thread and got a response similar to the one here. I also think IBM, Hewlett and CPQ's stuffing of the channel, which is not an option for Dell, and copying Dell in a receivables flim flam, added to the results. And I still say that the Dell's sequential loss of market share last quarter was exceptional. Prove me wrong. With facts to back your prejudice, if you have any. MB

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (99739)	2/15/1999 7:22:00 PM
From: Gabriel008	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Chuzzlewit, There is only one truly accurate method to measure market share and eliminate the distortions of seasonality and that is to do this analysis on a rolling 12 month basis. This is how it's done in the consumer products business and it shows the true measure of performance. I just happen to have these rolling 12 month numbers and growth data for the last 9 quarters. ............World.....growth.....DELL....Growth...Share ..........PC Volume.....%......Volume.....%........%.. Q4, 96.....69324.......n/a......2996......n/a.....4.3 Q1, 97.....72041.......3.9......3381......12.9....4.7 Q2, 97.....74450.......3.3......3732......10.4....5.0 Q3, 97.....77087.......3.5......4157......11.4....5.4 Q4, 97.....80026.......3.8......4707......13.2....5.9 Q1, 98.....81982.......2.4......5330......13.2....6.5 Q2, 98.....83754.......2.2......6123......14.9....7.3 Q3, 98.....86193.......2.9......6901......12.7....8.0 Q4, 98.....89845.......4.2......7721......11.9....8.6 Now, this proves conclusively that the PC market is growing and that DELL's share is growing. You'll notice, of course, that Q4,98 worldwide volume shot up 4.2% in the Q4 period. That's our little friends from IBM loading up the channel, with some help from Compaq no doubt. Despite this, DELL achieved 8.6% rolling 12 month share, a record and this is a company that sells direct and can't load the channel. To me this means in Q1, 99 the channel will need to get flushed, again, and DELL's share will probably jump to the 9.5% range. Unfortunately, I didn't have the data the break up this rolling 12 month info into its respective product segments; namely, portables, servers and desktops. best regards, Gabriel