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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (99779)	2/15/1999 7:37:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Thank you Gabriel. I knew you'd come through with data! I made the same argument to Burke (without the benefit of all of the data in front of me), but he seems fixated on the idea that Dell lost market share in the fourth quarter, and for some odd reason he continues to think I agree with him on that point. Maybe he was kicked in the head by one of his losing racehorses. <G> Thanks again. I hope you have put this issue to bed. CTC

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (99779)	2/15/1999 7:39:00 PM
From: Buster O. Hype	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

IMO, the growth spurt on the 4th quarter wasn't because of channel stuffing by IBM and Compaq. There was a real spurt on sub-1000 PC's. Just look at Microsoft's numbers. Dell doesn't want to compete on this segment. This might also explain why for the 4th quarter, Dell would appear to have grown slower that the overall market on a quarter to quarter basis. When this sub-1000 PC's first came out, Dell manage to stay in the high margin area (the $2000-$5000). But now, the high-end is going down incredibly fast in price too. At some point, do they sell only in the $1000-2000 area. The Pentium II 450's are fast approaching sub-1000. And the notebooks are getting incredibly cheap too. Sooner or later, they just have to target this market. Then they become valued just like the rest of the boxmakers.

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (99779)	2/15/1999 8:56:00 PM
From: Jock Hutchinson	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 176387

Since you happen to have all the figures Gabriel, and this decline in DELL is due to seasonality, perhaps you can share with the thread the figures for 4Q '97 and compare them to 4Q '98. That way you won't be able to hide your seasonality argument in a rolling year over year figure. Now remember, this year the industry in the US grew by 13 percent over the previous quarter, and DELL grew by a mere three percent. That means that DELL's growth this year for this quarter only was ten percentage points less than the industry. Worldwide the industry grew by 23 percent this year on a quarter over quarter basis. DELL grew by 13 percent. Thus, again, DELL grew by ten percentage points less. So here is the true critical question that will answer whether or not DELL's stock price is in deep trouble. Did DELL's unit volume grow by ten percentage points less than the rest of the industry in 4Q 1997 just it did in '98? If not, then DELL is clearly begining to show signs of losing market share of all units sold. It's that simple. Now it's time to answer the question and truly "put the issue to rest."--instead of being mired in some vague sort of self congratulating quicksand telling everyone that you have put the issue to rest when you haven't answered the question.