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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (28260)2/16/1999 6:11:00 PM
From: Michael Ohlendorf  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 70976
 
AMAT has to and will come back to the 50s. All the Semis have run back to almost their old highs and even beyond like in AMATs case. Every small sign of recovery sparked a major rally like in the days where the stocks were really making good money. Bottom line is most are still earning less than 1-2 years ago and real recovery most likely to take place in the 2nd half of 1999 even if this should have happened now already but it did not. This can not work out if the market starts to melt AMAT will follow sooner or later. Look at MUs chart. From the 80s back to the 60s and it is still way to expensive.



To: orkrious who wrote (28260)2/16/1999 7:24:00 PM
From: Howard Bennett  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
AMAT only sells for 30x current Y2K earnings estimates.

And that is 2 years away. Y2K earnings means the end of FY 2000.

Seems to me that there are alot of potential variables between now then.

>but given the strength of orders,

But previously AMAT management were expecting the "growth" to come from Asia. Where is the Asian recovery? AMAT management doesn't like to talk about that.


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