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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (25471)	2/17/1999 10:29:00 AM
From: Paul Fiondella	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

Earnings momentum The question in my mind has to do with how quickly NOVL will reach the level of earnings that it has historically exhibited, namely .17 per share. The speed with which it reaches that level, which it seems it can reasonably do with the revenue projections from its CFO, should benefit the price. In other words NOVL price currently has the benefit of earnings momentum. After it reaches some earnings level that it cannot easily exceed, its price is going to stagnate --- unless some new product line --- something fundamental (like Digital Me) then moves the stock higher. Wall Street always likes a stock that is showing increased earnings quarter to quarter. I expect this quarter to be much better than expected. Thus the price should reflect the earnings momentum. That means NOVl may trade higher than the multiples you have cited --- say 30 to 40 until it stagnates again with sales of its core product (netware). The window of opportunity with Digital Me (ecommerce) will close fast but I expect Schmidt knows that. In answer to your question of why Java or Jini can't provide security and network directory functions like NDS, I'd like to hear from some of our technical network types. My response would be that the promise of NDS lies in Novell getting into the digital vault business and providing the infrastructure for those types of partnerships EARLY IN THEIR DEVELOPMENT. Schmidt will have to initiate such partnerships and not wait for these companies to come knocking on Novell's door. Conclusion: Earnings momentum will carry the stock for this and the next two quarters. In a real correction (say caused by Japan) all the longs here will end up like we did four years ago unless they have bought puts. =================== Isn't Danti something. He quotes me when he can't answer your question and then he calls me all sorts of names. Isn't this the kind of guy you would love to have with you in the trenches? Watch your back MR. inferiority complex is about to make his move. (No comments necessary!)

To: E_K_S who wrote (25471)	2/17/1999 11:09:00 AM
From: PJ Strifas	Respond to of 42771

<<As Sunw develops Jini and Java applications and release their new Solaris OS, it is quite possible that a NetWare OS will be limited in it's value added functions to the network. Why couldn't a Jini or Java application provide the necessary security and Network directory functions that a Novell NDS provides? Couldn't a Sunw, LU or CSCO utilize the NDS standards without the NetWare OS? >> First, they would have to develop this new security feature set just like Novell did with NDS and just like MSFT is doing with Active Directory. I don't think NDS will become open-source code unless it became the pancea to all our access, security needs and some government body declared it "public domain" or something. Otherwise, whatever product they developed based on NDS would be running awfully close to violating Novell's Patents and trademarks etc. no? I think we need to stand back from that technical question and look into what some people are doing for the future. Consider the W3C's (Worldwide Web Consortitum) work on a project called Jigsaw. This is the first webserver written totally in JAVA. It's an open source code project which means anyone can download it, play with it, develop it further for their own use. If NetWare 5.0 has the "fastest Java Virtual Machince" of any of the OS's then considerably it has a leg up on running JAVA applications such as Jigsaw. While this program hasn't been tested just yet on NetWare, it could provide a glimpse into the future in this case. (I'll let you know after the download is complete and I've had some time to tinker with it whether or not it's compatible with NetWare) We'll see future revisions of NetWare incorporating more Java instead of the old tried and true NLM technology as Java matures. This is where the future of computing will make a turn. True cross-platform interoperability will be the next splash on the radar screen. When more network-dependant apps come written in Java, things will change and Novell is already there (along with IBM, Sun and possibly Netscape). On another topic, I'd also keep my eye on Oracle's RAW IRON project. They have a kernel that runs on a machine and you would then write apps to that kernel. The kernel handles the hardware and I/O system functions. Sort of how Linux got started. It was just a kernel once then they began to write services and apps for it. I keep it on my radar screen just for curiousity sake but you never know. Peter Strifas