To: Knighty Tin who wrote (47549 ) 2/17/1999 3:23:00 PM From: Knighty Tin Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 132070
To All, The Amat disaster: 1. Sales down 43% year over year. What a recovery. <VBG> 2. Net income 42.5 million vs. 197.8 million. 3. New orders down 25% year over year. 4. Margins were down, but that is to be expected in such a lousy quarter in relative terms. 5. They actually are gaining market share. And some buggy whip co. must be gaining market share in that market. <G> 6. Despite previous announcements to the contrary, this co. is tied to a DRAM recovery. In other words, they are dead meat over the next couple of years because there is no recovery likely. 7. Healthy pc demand? Tell it to the boxmakers and the revenue numbers. Ain't happening. Do I think Amat is lying? Nope. I just think the hype the industry is tossing around has even fooled an experienced player like AMAT, mainly because they want to believe it. 8. Strong US economy? Unbalanced and totally based upon indebtedness. Yup! Sustainable. NO way. 9. R&D declining. Uh, I thought the future was so bright they had to wear shades? 10. TAxes down big time. Again, no surprise given how lousy the quarter was. 11. Receivables down pretty strongly and inventories basically flat. This is the way an honest co.'s balance sheet looks during a downturn. Sequentially, the numbers look better which is why the stock is at a 52 week high. However, sequentially, many of the boxmakers got fooled into thinking that selling a few more boxes for a lot less money could be confused with a recovery. The Chippies are buying equipment for this recovery. But, there ain't no recovery, just a continued downturn. AMAT is not a slimer co. like many I follow. Yes, they tout a lot in speeches, but they don't mess much with the numbers. I have owned their shares many times in the past and would own them now if they were at $15. But, in the $60s, you have to ask, what are the gullibulls thinking? MB