Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Ohlendorf who wrote (28335)	2/17/1999 7:57:00 AM
From: klaus pluszynski	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Michael, I do agree with you, that at some point in the future AMAT will probably tank to the 1.5 times book level. But we'll most likely see the stock rise to new heights during CY99, and with good reasons: - the SEMI equipment group isn't overvalued when compared with other industry groups. See my post at Message 7738529 for details - Reported orders, management comments and a number of bullish news from semi manufacturers are indicating, that we're in the upturn of the cycle. - The Semi manufacturers are typically all moving into the same direction. Last year, everybody cut back capital equipment spending. This year, they will all come back. Because none of them can afford to miss the train to .18 micron or 300mm or copper or whatever technology gives their competitors an advantage. - Interest rates are a lot lower today than they were during the last boom in this group, supporting higher peak P/E valuations - The Yen is stronger vs. the USD today than a year ago, leading to better competitiveness of the US manufacturers vs. their japanese counterparts We'll probably see a correction soon but I wouldn't bet on it. Just my .02 Klaus